FL1 FORECAST: Rain and gusty winds spread west today before a drier Tuesday

Rain will spread west across the Finger Lakes and Central New York on Sunday as a slow-moving coastal storm pushes Atlantic moisture back into the region. The steadiest rain is expected first in the Southern Tier and areas near and east of Interstate 81 before reaching the western Finger Lakes later in the day.

Rain expands from east to west Sunday

The coastal low was spinning off New Jersey early Sunday and beginning a slow move toward the shoreline. A band of rain tied to the storm will move northwest through the day, bringing wet weather into Central New York during the morning and across more of the Finger Lakes by late morning and afternoon.

The timing will not be the same everywhere. Syracuse, Ithaca and Elmira are expected to see rain develop during the morning, while Geneva is more likely to turn wet late in the morning. Showers may not reach Rochester and the western Finger Lakes until around midday or early afternoon.

Rain could be widespread for a time across the central and eastern part of the region. Most of it should be light to moderate rather than especially heavy, with the storm's slow-moving rain band providing much of Sunday's total.

Forecast amounts generally range from a quarter-inch to a half-inch across Central New York through Sunday night. Similar totals are possible around Geneva and Ithaca, while Rochester could receive a few tenths of an inch. Higher totals are expected farther southeast toward the Catskills and northeastern Pennsylvania, where some locations could approach three-quarters of an inch.

Despite the broad area of rain, the Weather Service said the chance of flooding or other hydrologic problems remains very low. The storm is not expected to produce thunderstorms or severe weather across the region.

Sunday will stay mostly cloudy, with afternoon temperatures held near 60 degrees in Elmira and Geneva and in the lower to mid-60s around Ithaca, Syracuse and Rochester. The cloud cover, rain and northeast flow will make the day feel markedly cooler than a typical late-September afternoon.

Gusty winds accompany the rain

North to northeast winds will strengthen as the coastal low comes closest to the region. Gusts of 20 to 25 mph are expected across much of the Finger Lakes and Central New York, with the strongest winds generally occurring during the day Sunday.

The pressure difference around the storm could produce locally stronger gusts over higher terrain, but confidence in advisory-level wind was too low for the Weather Service to issue a wind advisory. Winds should begin easing Sunday evening as the low starts to move northeast and weaken.

A beach hazards statement remains in effect through late Sunday night along the Lake Ontario shoreline, including Monroe, Wayne and northern Cayuga counties. Rough water and dangerous currents are expected as the north to northeast wind builds waves along the southern shore of the lake.

Cloud ceilings will also lower as rain moves west. The combination of low clouds and periods of rain may reduce visibility at times Sunday afternoon and evening, especially from the central Finger Lakes eastward.

Showers taper gradually Monday

The rain will not end everywhere at once Sunday night. Showers should become less numerous from west to east as the coastal low begins moving toward New England, leaving cloudy skies and overnight temperatures mainly in the lower to mid-50s.

Rochester and the western Finger Lakes are most likely to dry out first. A few showers may still be falling around Geneva early Monday, while rain chances will last longer around Ithaca, Elmira and Syracuse. The Southern Tier could see lingering showers through part of Monday afternoon before conditions improve.

Monday will remain mostly cloudy even after the steadier rain ends. Highs are expected to reach the mid-60s across much of the region, with light north winds replacing Sunday's gustier conditions.

Any remaining showers should end by Monday evening as the storm pulls farther away. Clouds may be slow to break overnight, with lows again settling into the lower and mid-50s.

Quieter weather returns Tuesday and Wednesday

High pressure will build into the region Tuesday, bringing a mainly dry day and at least some breaks of sunshine. Patchy morning fog could form in favored valleys where winds become light and the ground remains damp from the weekend rain.

Tuesday afternoon temperatures will recover into the upper 60s around Rochester, Geneva and Syracuse and near 70 around Ithaca and Elmira. Skies should range from partly sunny in the Finger Lakes to mostly cloudy at times in the Southern Tier, but organized rain is not expected.

The dry stretch should continue Wednesday as weak high pressure remains in control. A southwest to west flow will help temperatures rise into the mid-70s in many communities, with partly sunny skies and light winds.

Wednesday night will be milder than the start of the week. Lows are forecast in the upper 50s in most areas as clouds begin to increase ahead of the next weather system.

Late-week rain timing remains uncertain

Thursday is expected to be the warmest day of the forecast period, with partly sunny skies and highs in the mid-70s. Temperatures could approach the upper 70s in parts of the southern and eastern Finger Lakes as winds turn southerly.

The next chance for rain arrives Thursday night into Friday as a boundary extends from the Midwest toward the Northeast. Current forecasts carry only a 30% to 40% chance of showers during that period, reflecting uncertainty over where the boundary will settle and how quickly it will move.

If the front reaches the region on schedule, Friday would turn cooler with scattered showers and highs ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s. A slower or weaker system could leave longer dry intervals, and confidence is still limited on whether showers will clear in time for the start of next weekend.