Sunshine and cool early-fall air will continue across the Finger Lakes and Central New York on Thursday, beginning a gradual warmup that should carry into Saturday. A developing coastal storm will bring more clouds, a northerly breeze and the chance for scattered weekend showers, especially closer to and east of Interstate 81.
High pressure will keep most of the region dry through the end of the workweek, according to the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton. After patchy morning fog clears, Thursday highs will reach the mid- to upper 60s, with some locations in the southern Finger Lakes approaching 70 degrees.
Sunshine and a slow warmup Thursday
Thursday will start chilly in many inland locations. Temperatures fell into the 30s in some sheltered valleys overnight, while most lower-elevation communities settled into the low and mid-40s. Areas near Lake Ontario, including Rochester, remained somewhat milder.
Localized fog may reduce visibility for a time around daybreak in river valleys and other sheltered low spots. The best chance extends from parts of the Finger Lakes into the Southern Tier, with fog expected to lift by about 8 or 9 a.m. in communities where it develops.
Skies will then be sunny for most of the day. Forecast highs range from about 66 in Rochester to the upper 60s in Geneva, Syracuse and Ithaca. East to northeast winds will generally remain light, although occasional afternoon gusts near 15 mph are possible around Central New York.
High pressure centered over eastern Canada is responsible for the dry pattern. The cool air mass beneath it will slowly moderate as the center of the high settles south and then shifts west toward the Great Lakes over the next several days.
Clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to fall quickly again Thursday night. Lows are expected to range from the low 40s in colder interior locations to the upper 40s near Rochester and the larger lakes. Patchy frost will be possible in a few elevated, narrow valleys of the Twin Tiers and in colder parts of the Catskills and southern Tug Hill, while valley fog may redevelop elsewhere.
Friday and Saturday remain mainly dry
Friday will bring another mostly sunny day after any early fog dissipates. Afternoon temperatures will climb into the upper 60s to around 70, making the day a little warmer than Thursday despite continued northerly flow.
The night will not be quite as cold in most places. Forecast lows range from the upper 40s in colder inland valleys to the lower and mid-50s closer to Lake Ontario. Fog could again form in sheltered valleys before daybreak Saturday, but widespread visibility problems are not expected.
Saturday should remain dry for most of the Finger Lakes, with highs near 70. Sunshine will be more limited east of the lakes as high clouds spread west from a strengthening storm along the Atlantic coast. The amount of cloud cover will depend on how far inland the storm's moisture reaches.
Northerly winds will also begin to increase as the coastal storm strengthens and high pressure remains over the Great Lakes. The strongest winds are expected across Central New York and areas farther east, where sustained speeds of 10 to 15 mph and gusts near 25 mph are possible during the weekend.
Coastal storm may brush Central New York
Forecast guidance continues to show a coastal low moving into the Mid-Atlantic region and strengthening this weekend. The projected center shifted somewhat west in the latest overnight data, but there is still considerable spread among forecast solutions about its exact track.
That uncertainty is important because very dry air associated with high pressure over the Great Lakes will resist the storm's westward expansion. Bands of clouds and showers may reach Interstate 81 and nearby communities, while the western Finger Lakes and Rochester are more likely to stay on the drier side of the system.
Showers could begin Saturday night in and around Syracuse, Ithaca and areas farther east. Rain chances continue Sunday, generally ranging from about 30% in the central Finger Lakes to 40% around Syracuse and Ithaca. Rochester carries only a slight chance of a shower Sunday afternoon.
Even if the storm edges farther west, the heaviest rain and strongest winds are expected to remain east of the Catskills. The National Weather Service expects minimal impacts across the Finger Lakes and Central New York, although a breezy north wind and periods of cloud cover will make Sunday feel cooler.
Sunday highs should hold in the mid- to upper 60s. Skies will likely be mostly cloudy closer to Interstate 81, with more breaks possible farther west. Showers will remain scattered rather than continuous, and some locations may stay dry throughout the day.
Dry weather returns early next week
The coastal system should weaken and move out to sea Sunday night into Monday. A few showers may linger early Monday, mainly east of Interstate 81, before high pressure builds back into the region.
Monday will be partly sunny with highs in the mid-60s. Winds will ease as the pressure difference between the departing coastal storm and the approaching high becomes less pronounced.
A broader warming trend is expected Tuesday and Wednesday as winds turn more southwesterly. Tuesday highs should reach around 70 or the lower 70s under mostly sunny skies, followed by the mid-70s Wednesday in much of the Finger Lakes and Central New York.
The early- and middle-week pattern looks largely dry. A small chance of a shower may return to parts of the western and central Finger Lakes later Wednesday, but confidence in any precipitation remains low while the warmer air becomes established.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
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