Sunny skies and cool early fall temperatures will settle across the Finger Lakes and Central New York on Wednesday, beginning a mostly dry stretch that is expected to last through the end of the workweek.
High pressure will keep the region quiet while afternoon temperatures reach the mid- to upper 60s in most communities, according to the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton. A developing coastal storm could bring more clouds, a north breeze and a few showers this weekend, but the more likely track would keep its heavier rain and wind east of the region.
Sunshine and a cool breeze Wednesday
Skies will be mostly sunny across much of the region Wednesday after a chilly start. Highs are forecast near 65 in Rochester, 67 in Geneva and Syracuse, 69 in Ithaca and 66 in Elmira.
An east to northeast wind will remain noticeable through the day. Sustained winds will generally stay below 15 mph, though gusts could approach 20 mph in some open areas during the afternoon. The dry air and sunshine will keep humidity low.
Localized fog may linger briefly around daybreak in a few river valleys, particularly across the Southern Tier, but widespread visibility problems are not expected. Dry weather should hold across the region through Wednesday night.
A beach hazards statement remains in effect until 8 a.m. Wednesday along the Lake Ontario shores of Monroe and Wayne counties because of strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions. The rougher lake conditions will ease as winds weaken Wednesday night.
Chilly nights bring patchy frost and fog
Clear skies and lighter winds will allow temperatures to fall quickly Wednesday night. Most lower-elevation communities in the Finger Lakes and Central New York will drop into the low to mid-40s, while colder pockets in the western Southern Tier and near the Tug Hill could fall into the 30s.
Patchy frost is possible in the coldest sheltered locations, especially where temperatures reach the mid-30s. The frost potential farther south remains less certain because slightly higher moisture could favor valley fog instead. No frost advisory was in effect early Wednesday.
Thursday will begin with patchy fog in some valleys before sunshine returns. Afternoon temperatures will again be comfortable, ranging from the mid-60s near Rochester to around 70 in Ithaca. Geneva, Syracuse and Elmira should reach the upper 60s.
Another mainly clear and cool night is expected Thursday night. Lows will generally settle into the 40s, with isolated colder readings possible in deeper valleys. Fog may redevelop toward daybreak Friday where winds become calm.
Gradual warming continues Friday
High pressure will remain in control Friday, keeping rain out of the forecast and allowing temperatures to rise slightly. Most of the region should see plenty of sunshine, though some high clouds could begin to approach from the east or southeast later in the day.
Forecast highs range from the mid-60s around Rochester and Geneva to near 70 in Ithaca and the lower 70s around Syracuse. Winds will stay relatively light, generally from the north or northwest.
Friday night will remain dry, with lows mainly in the mid- to upper 40s away from Lake Ontario. Patches of fog may form again in the river valleys and other sheltered locations before sunrise Saturday.
Coastal storm brings weekend uncertainty
Saturday is expected to remain mainly dry across the Finger Lakes and much of Central New York. Morning fog should lift into mostly sunny or partly sunny skies, with highs from the upper 60s to around 70. Northerly winds will begin to increase as a coastal storm strengthens off the East Coast.
The storm's exact track remains uncertain. Most forecast guidance keeps the center far enough east that the heaviest rain and strongest winds stay outside the region. A smaller group of forecast scenarios, roughly 20%, tracks the system farther west into Pennsylvania and New Jersey. That less likely path would bring a wetter and windier weekend to parts of New York.
Even with an offshore track, clouds are expected to spread westward Saturday night and Sunday. The best chance for rain will be near and east of Interstate 81, including areas toward the Catskills. Occasional light rain or sprinkles could extend farther west into the eastern Finger Lakes.
Sunday's forecast reflects that east-to-west difference. Syracuse has about a 30% chance of showers, while Ithaca and Elmira carry a smaller chance. Geneva could see a stray shower, but Rochester is more likely to stay dry with some sunshine. Highs should remain in the mid- to upper 60s as a north wind adds a cooler feel.
Confidence is higher that the weekend will turn breezier and cloudier than it is in the amount of rain. A modest shift in the coastal storm's track could still change the western edge of the shower area, especially from Saturday night through Sunday.
Drier and warmer early next week
The coastal system is expected to weaken and move farther out to sea late Sunday into Monday. High pressure should rebuild behind it, bringing a return to mostly dry weather across the Finger Lakes and Central New York.
Monday will be mostly sunny with highs in the upper 60s. Warmer air should arrive Tuesday as winds turn more toward the southwest, lifting afternoon temperatures into the low to mid-70s while rain chances remain low.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
FingerLakes1.com is the region’s leading all-digital news publication. The company was founded in 1998 and has been keeping residents informed for more than two decades. Have a lead? Send it to news@fingerlakes1.com.