Clouds will give way to more sunshine across much of the Finger Lakes and Central New York on Tuesday, while temperatures remain cool for late September. A few light showers or sprinkles are possible near the Pennsylvania border, but most of the region is expected to stay dry.
The dry stretch should continue through the middle of the week as high pressure holds over the Northeast, according to the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton. By Friday and the weekend, the track of a developing coastal system will determine whether rain reaches parts of the region or stays farther east.
Clouds thin Tuesday
The day begins with more cloud cover in southern areas, closer to a weak area of low pressure over the Ohio Valley. Farther north, breaks in the clouds should develop through the morning, with mostly sunny conditions forecast around Rochester and Syracuse by afternoon. Parts of the central Finger Lakes and Southern Tier may hold on to clouds longer.
Any precipitation Tuesday is expected to be light and spotty. The Buffalo office places the best chance for a few showers or sprinkles along the Pennsylvania border through tonight or very early Wednesday. The Binghamton office expects the more persistent rain to stay mainly south of New York; measurable rain is not expected across most of its New York forecast area.
Afternoon temperatures will generally reach the lower to upper 60s, with cooler readings in higher terrain. Current forecasts put Rochester near 63 degrees, Geneva near 66, Syracuse near 68 and Ithaca near 69. A northeast breeze will make the air feel cooler near Lake Ontario, while winds are forecast to be lighter farther inland.
The onshore flow is also producing hazardous swimming conditions along parts of the Lake Ontario shoreline. A beach hazards statement for beaches in Monroe and Wayne counties continues through Wednesday morning because of strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions. That lakeshore hazard is separate from the limited inland rain chance.
Chilly nights, sunnier days
Skies will become partly cloudy Tuesday night across much of the region, with lows generally in the 40s. Low clouds near the Southern Tier should diminish as the weak system to the south moves away. In valleys where winds become light and skies clear, patchy fog could form late at night or around daybreak.
The coldest spots will be farther north. Binghamton forecasters say temperatures may fall into the mid to upper 30s in northern Oneida County during the next few nights, allowing patchy frost. The Buffalo office also notes that readings in the upper 30s could reach parts of the interior Southern Tier on Wednesday and Thursday nights. Frost coverage remains uncertain and is not being forecast as a widespread regional event.
Wednesday looks dry for most of the Finger Lakes and Central New York as the weaker system pulls away and high pressure stays in control. Sunshine is forecast in Rochester, Geneva and Syracuse, with highs generally in the mid- to upper 60s. Areas closer to the Pennsylvania border may see more clouds early, but the chance for showers should fade.
After sunset Wednesday, temperatures are forecast to return to the low and mid-40s in many communities, with some colder inland valleys possible. The combination of a clearer sky and lighter wind may allow localized fog by Thursday morning, particularly near rivers and lakes. Fog would be an early-morning feature rather than a daylong change in the dry pattern.
Northeasterly or easterly winds will continue to limit the warm-up, particularly near the lakes. Around Rochester, the Wednesday forecast calls for an east wind of roughly 7 to 13 mph and a high near 66. Syracuse is forecast to reach about 69 with a lighter east wind.
Thursday is expected to remain dry and sunny across most of the region. Forecast highs stay in the upper 60s in the central and eastern Finger Lakes and around Syracuse, with nighttime readings again falling into the 40s. Patchy early fog remains possible in river and lake valleys when skies clear and winds ease.
Coastal storm track matters late week
Friday remains mostly dry in the current forecast, with temperatures continuing a slow climb toward more typical late-September levels. Rochester, Geneva, Syracuse and Ithaca are currently forecast to reach the upper 60s. The Buffalo office expects highs from the mid-60s to lower 70s across its broader western New York area by Saturday, though cooler conditions may linger in higher elevations.
The less certain part of the forecast comes as low pressure develops near the Mid-Atlantic coast. At present, the Binghamton office expects its greatest effects to remain well east of the Finger Lakes and Central New York. A farther-west track, however, could bring periods of rain, especially toward eastern areas; if high pressure holds, much of the region could stay dry through the weekend.
That range of outcomes is not a forecast for widespread rain here. Current point forecasts show only slight shower chances around Syracuse and Ithaca late Friday into Saturday, while Rochester and Geneva remain mostly sunny in Saturday's forecast. Binghamton forecasters say the track would need to shift substantially west for a larger local effect.
Cloud cover and wind would also depend on that track. A closer system could produce a cooler, cloudier period and breezy north to northwest winds, with gusts potentially reaching 20 to 25 mph in parts of the Binghamton office's region. A more easterly path would leave brighter and calmer weather across much of the region. Confidence in the precise weekend outcome remains lower than in the dry midweek forecast.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
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