Rain will continue across much of the Finger Lakes and Central New York early Sunday before gradually ending from northwest to southeast, leaving a cool, mostly cloudy afternoon across the region.
The steadiest rain will favor the Southern Tier and areas farther east, while Rochester and the western Finger Lakes see lighter amounts and an earlier end, according to the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton. Highs will generally reach the mid-60s, and no weather advisories were in effect for New York early Sunday.
Rain eases through Sunday
A low pressure system tracking across southern Pennsylvania is spreading rain north into the Finger Lakes and Central New York. The storm has shifted farther south than earlier forecasts indicated, keeping the heaviest rainfall south of the region and lowering expected totals across much of western and central New York.
The rain will not be evenly distributed. Showers should be more scattered around Rochester and the Lake Ontario plain, where less than a tenth of an inch may fall through the day. Farther southeast, including around Geneva, Ithaca, Elmira and Syracuse, periods of steadier rain will continue longer and could add another quarter-inch to half-inch in some places.
The highest totals are expected across northeastern Pennsylvania and into the southern Catskills, where one-half inch to 1 inch of rain remains possible. The Weather Prediction Center removed the area from its excessive-rainfall outlook after the southward shift in the storm track, and the National Weather Service is not projecting a broad flooding threat from this system.
Rain will begin winding down during the morning across the Rochester area and western Finger Lakes. The drying trend will work southeast through the afternoon, but showers may linger longer toward Ithaca, Elmira, Syracuse and the higher terrain before ending late in the day or early evening.
Low clouds will be slow to clear even after the rain stops. Most of the region will remain mostly cloudy, with only limited breaks of sun possible late in the day across northern areas. Highs should range from about 64 to 67 degrees in the lower elevations, while a north or northeast breeze develops behind the departing system.
Periods of rain and low cloud cover may also reduce visibility at times Sunday morning and early afternoon. Conditions will gradually improve behind the rain, although some lower cloud cover could remain across the hills and areas southeast of the Finger Lakes into Sunday evening.
A chilly night leads into Monday
Sunday night will turn mainly dry as cooler Canadian air moves into the region. Skies will remain mostly cloudy in many places, and temperatures will fall into the upper 40s and low 50s by early Monday.
Some patchy fog could form where the ground remains wet and winds become light. The incoming air mass will also be much drier, however, which should limit how widespread or persistent the fog becomes.
High pressure will settle over the region Monday and keep the day dry. Clouds may remain stubborn, especially west of the Finger Lakes and inland from Lake Ontario, but occasional breaks are possible as the day goes on.
Monday will feel distinctly cooler than the recent stretch of early fall weather. Highs will range from around 60 near Rochester to the mid-60s around Ithaca, Elmira and Syracuse. A northeast wind will add to the cool feel, with the breeze most noticeable closer to Lake Ontario.
Temperatures will slip back into the mid- to upper 40s Monday night. Most areas remain dry, although clouds will begin increasing again near the Southern Tier as another weak disturbance approaches from the southwest.
Tuesday shower chances favor the south
The next chance for rain arrives Tuesday, but confidence remains limited because forecast guidance differs on how far north a stalled front will reach. The most likely outcome keeps the better shower chances across northeastern Pennsylvania and near the New York-Pennsylvania line.
A few showers could extend into the Southern Tier and western parts of the Finger Lakes, especially early Tuesday. Areas farther north, including Rochester and Syracuse, are more likely to remain dry beneath mostly cloudy skies. If the front stays farther south, rain may be sparse across most of upstate New York.
Temperatures will continue to run below normal. Tuesday highs should range from the upper 50s to mid-60s, with the coolest readings where clouds or showers persist. Easterly winds around the Canadian high will continue feeding cool air into the region.
Tuesday night will remain mostly cloudy and chilly, with lows generally in the mid- to upper 40s. Any lingering showers should be spotty and concentrated closer to the Southern Tier.
Cool pattern holds through midweek
Wednesday and Thursday are trending mainly dry as high pressure strengthens to the north. Both days should bring a mix of clouds and partial sunshine, with afternoon temperatures holding in the upper 50s to mid-60s and overnight lows falling into the low to mid-40s.
There is still some uncertainty around a developing upper-level low over the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. If its associated moisture pushes farther north, isolated showers could reach parts of western New York or the Southern Tier from Wednesday into Thursday. A farther south track would leave most of the Finger Lakes and Central New York dry.
The best chance for longer dry periods appears to be across the northern Finger Lakes, Rochester and Syracuse. Farther south and west, brief showers remain possible, but the pattern does not currently support a widespread or heavy rain event during the middle of the week.
Coastal storm may stay east Friday
By Friday, a separate low pressure system is expected to organize off the East Coast. Current projections keep that storm far enough east to spare most of the Finger Lakes and Central New York from a prolonged period of rain.
The coastal system could stall offshore, and small changes in its track would affect cloud cover and shower chances late in the week. The more likely forecast keeps the region mostly dry under a persistent northeast flow, with temperatures remaining cooler than normal.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
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