Americans have become more skeptical that a woman will be elected president during their lifetime, even as most say a president's gender is not personally important to them, according to a new Pew Research Center survey.
The survey found 37% of U.S. adults believe a woman becoming president is not too likely or not at all likely. That share was 26% in 2023.
Expectations decline since 2023
Seventeen percent said the prospect was extremely or very likely, down from 25% three years earlier. Another 44% described it as somewhat likely, compared with 49% in 2023.
The findings measure expectations, not whether respondents support a particular candidate. No woman has served as U.S. president, though women have held the vice presidency and major-party presidential nominations.
Pew surveyed 3,554 adults from July 6-12 through its American Trends Panel. The panel is designed to represent the adult U.S. population, and results are weighted for demographic differences.
The shift could reflect recent elections, the current political environment or views about barriers faced by women candidates. The survey did not ask respondents to identify a single reason for their prediction.
Eighteen percent said it was extremely or very important to them personally that a woman be elected president in their lifetime, a share unchanged from 2023. Sixteen percent called it somewhat important.
The remaining 66% said it was not too important, not at all important or that a president's gender did not matter. Pew combined those responses in its analysis of personal importance.
Partisan and gender gaps remain
Thirty percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents said electing a woman was highly important to them, compared with 5% of Republicans and Republican leaners.
Among Republicans, 87% said the milestone was not important or that gender was irrelevant. The comparable share among Democrats was 46%.
Women were more likely than men to call the milestone highly important, 22% to 12%. Still, majorities of both groups said it was not important or that gender did not matter: 60% of women and 73% of men.
The partisan difference was especially visible among women. Thirty-seven percent of Democratic women said electing a woman president was highly important, compared with 22% of Democratic men.
Among Republicans, 6% of women and 3% of men described it as highly important. The small shares show that party identification was more strongly associated with the response than gender alone.
People who valued the milestone did not uniformly expect it to happen. Among those who said it was extremely or very important, 30% viewed a woman president as highly likely, 40% as somewhat likely and 30% as unlikely.
Survey estimates carry sampling error and can also be affected by question wording and nonresponse. Pew provides methodology and question details with its report so readers can evaluate the findings.
The results describe public opinion at the time of the July survey. They are not a forecast model and do not predict the outcome of any future election.
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