FL1 FORECAST: Mainly dry stretch settles in before Sunday storm risk returns

Quieter weather is settling across the Finger Lakes and Central New York on Thursday, giving the region a break from the more unsettled pattern that carried into midweek and setting up a mostly dry stretch through at least Saturday.

Thursday turns quieter

Thursday starts with leftover low clouds and areas of fog in parts of the Southern Tier, western Finger Lakes and nearby valleys, but that should gradually lift through the morning as drier air works in from the northwest. Once the fog and low stratus break up, much of the region should spend the rest of the day with a mix of clouds and some sun.

Most communities across the Finger Lakes should stay dry, though forecasters still allow for an isolated shower or thunderstorm as a weak disturbance swings southeast across parts of Central New York and areas east of Lake Ontario this afternoon into early evening. The overall setup is not especially favorable for severe weather today, with both forecast offices indicating that limited instability should keep any storms from becoming organized.

Temperatures will stay close to seasonal levels, with afternoon highs largely in the 70s to lower 80s. Winds should remain light, which will help the day feel quieter overall than the start of the week even where clouds linger longest.

By Thursday night, the combination of clearing skies, weak winds and lingering low-level moisture is expected to allow fog to redevelop in the usual valley locations. That signal is strongest across the western Southern Tier and the Finger Lakes, where patchy to locally dense fog could form again before daybreak Friday.

Friday and Saturday stay mostly dry

High pressure building in from Canada should keep Friday and most of Saturday in relatively good shape across the region. The broad theme through that stretch is a cooler, less humid air mass with daytime highs again running mainly in the mid-70s to low 80s and nighttime lows dropping back into the 50s in many places.

That does not mean every hour is guaranteed dry. Buffalo forecasters note a slight chance that a passing disturbance could clip north-central New York on Friday, while Binghamton forecasters see the better chance for any showers or a stray thunderstorm arriving Friday evening into Friday night as another weak trough tracks through the northwest flow. Even there, confidence in timing and coverage remains limited, and the better moisture and daytime heating may stay displaced enough to keep rain fairly spotty.

For the Finger Lakes, that leaves Friday as a usable summer day for most locations, with the greater risk of any interruption appearing later in the day and more likely east of the core Finger Lakes than west. Syracuse and nearby parts of Central New York may have a slightly better chance of seeing a brief shower Friday night, while Rochester and the western Finger Lakes appear more likely to stay on the quieter side of the setup.

Saturday currently looks like the steadiest continuation of the quieter pattern. Any leftover early clouds or valley fog should give way to a mix of sun and clouds, and most of the region should remain dry as the high gradually shifts east. Temperatures should stay in the 70s to lower 80s, and humidity levels still look manageable through much of the day.

Storm chances return Sunday

Sunday is shaping up as the next meaningful forecast period across both the Finger Lakes and Central New York. Forecast discussions from Buffalo and Binghamton both point to a low-pressure system and accompanying disturbances moving into the region, bringing a renewed round of scattered showers and thunderstorms from sometime Sunday into Sunday night.

The timing is important because the early part of the event may begin with showers and storms developing Saturday night into Sunday morning as a warm front lifts northeast. That would put at least some rain into the forecast before the more active part of the day, and it also introduces one of the largest uncertainties in the forecast: how much cloud cover and early precipitation might limit daytime heating before the cold front arrives later Sunday.

If the region can destabilize enough during the afternoon, forecasters say some storms could become strong and possibly severe. Buffalo forecasters specifically note that severe storms appear possible Sunday afternoon into the evening, but stress that the outcome depends on several factors, including how much the warm, humid air mass can recover during the day. Binghamton forecasters also describe the system as potent, while emphasizing that storm strength will depend heavily on the eventual track of the low and the amount of available instability.

That keeps Sunday from looking like a clear-cut severe weather setup this far out, but it does support a more active weather day than anything expected between now and then. At a minimum, the region appears likely to deal with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Heavier downpours are also possible, particularly where deeper moisture pools ahead of the system, though neither forecast office is signaling a widespread flooding setup at this point.

Temperatures Sunday should still reach the 70s to lower 80s in many spots, but the more noticeable change will be the return of humidity ahead of the front. Conditions may feel more midsummer-like again for several hours before the front pushes through Sunday evening or Sunday night.

Cooler air follows early next week

Behind the Sunday system, the broader forecast trends back toward cooler and drier conditions to start the new week. Buffalo forecasters expect drier weather to become more likely Sunday night into Monday as high pressure tries to build back in from the Upper Midwest, although a few isolated showers may linger as weaker disturbances continue to pass overhead.

Binghamton forecasters carry a similar idea into Monday, with a lower-end chance for a leftover shower or storm before the cooler air fully settles in. That should keep Monday from looking stormy, but it may not be completely perfect from dawn to dusk either.

By Monday afternoon, most of the region should be back in the 70s with a less humid feel than Sunday. For now, the more reliable part of the forecast remains the quieter stretch through Saturday, followed by a noticeably more active and less certain period on Sunday as the next storm system moves through the Finger Lakes and Central New York.