A Cornell-led study suggests current climate models may overestimate how much carbon forests will store as temperatures rise and air becomes hotter and drier.
The research, published June 18 in Geophysical Research Letters, found that a widely used land model could overestimate forests' future carbon storage potential by as much as 30%, according to the Cornell Chronicle.
Researchers said land currently absorbs about 27% of carbon dioxide produced by burning fossil fuels, while oceans absorb another 25%. But slower forest growth could reduce how much carbon remains stored in wood.
The study examined recent forest-growth research from Switzerland and compared a statistical model of tree growth and carbon storage through 2069 with simulations from a widely used land surface model.
Brendan Clark, the study's first author and a Cornell postdoctoral researcher, said land models often assume photosynthesis and growth are the same thing, while evidence shows trees can keep photosynthesizing without continuing to grow.
Researchers said incorporating slower growth into climate modeling could improve forecasts about future warming and carbon storage.
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