A cold, soaking rain is settling over the Finger Lakes and Central New York this Saturday morning as a stubborn storm system turns the unofficial start to summer into a raw, windy, and unusually chilly holiday weekend. Forecasters say periods of steady rain, gusty winds, and temperatures running nearly 20 degrees below normal will dominate through Sunday before warmer and drier weather finally returns Memorial Day afternoon and continues into next week.
Saturday looks like the roughest day of the holiday weekend
Today is expected to bring the worst weather of the three-day holiday weekend across the Finger Lakes, Southern Tier, Syracuse area, and Central New York.
Rain is already spreading across much of the region this morning and is expected to become steadier and heavier through the afternoon and evening hours. Forecasters say widespread rainfall totals between a half-inch and 1.5 inches are likely by Sunday, with the heaviest rain expected south of the Thruway corridor.
The rain is combining with strong easterly winds to create a raw, chilly feel more typical of early spring than late May. Temperatures are expected to remain stuck mostly in the upper 40s and lower 50s for much of the day across the Finger Lakes and Central New York, though some areas along the I-90 corridor could briefly touch the low 60s before heavier rain fully moves in later today.
Winds are also becoming a larger concern in the updated forecast. Sustained winds between 10 and 20 mph are expected with gusts reaching 30 to 35 mph in higher elevations and exposed areas. The National Weather Service in Buffalo says isolated gusts approaching 45 mph remain possible along the Chautauqua Ridge Saturday afternoon and evening if stronger winds mix down behind the heaviest rain bands.
While widespread flooding is not anticipated, forecasters warn ponding water on roads and rises on rivers and creeks are likely through the weekend. Some long-standing cold daytime temperature records from 1963 could also come close to being challenged today.
Sunday improves, but conditions stay unsettled
Sunday currently looks more like a transition day than a completely dry one.
Showers are expected to linger through at least part of the morning and early afternoon before conditions gradually improve from west to east later in the day. Most areas are expected to remain mostly cloudy, although forecasters say parts of the Finger Lakes could see occasional breaks of sunshine later Sunday afternoon if clearing develops quickly enough.
Temperatures will moderate slightly compared to Saturday, with highs expected in the upper 50s to mid-60s across most of the region. Some Finger Lakes communities could push into the upper 60s if partial sunshine develops during the afternoon.
The improving conditions Sunday afternoon could become important for campgrounds, lakeside tourism, and outdoor events across the Finger Lakes region. Even where rain tapers off, however, breezy conditions and saturated ground are expected to keep the holiday weekend feeling cool and damp.
Memorial Day itself looks warmer with fewer showers
There’s better news for Memorial Day itself.
Another fast-moving disturbance may bring scattered showers Sunday night into Monday morning, but forecasters expect conditions to improve noticeably during the afternoon as warmer air returns to the region. High temperatures Monday are now forecast to rebound into the 70s across much of the Finger Lakes and Central New York.
Forecast confidence still decreases somewhat regarding exactly how quickly showers clear Monday morning, but the overall trend points toward drier weather, increasing sunshine, and much more comfortable temperatures compared to Saturday and Sunday.
Summerlike warmth returns quickly next week
The chilly holiday weekend pattern is not expected to last long.
Both National Weather Service offices are now forecasting mainly dry conditions and above-normal temperatures from Tuesday through at least Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure builds across the eastern United States. High temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s across much of the Finger Lakes and Central New York through the middle of next week.
That rapid swing will make this Memorial Day weekend especially notable across Upstate New York. Just days after some areas approached 90 degrees earlier this week, residents are now spending the holiday weekend reaching for rain jackets, sweatshirts, and umbrellas instead of classic early-summer weather.
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