The 2025 U.S. Open returns to one of golf’s most punishing tests—Oakmont Country Club in Pennsylvania—where narrow fairways, slick greens, and thick rough await the world’s best.
As odds tighten and betting markets surge, here’s a full breakdown of expert picks, value plays, and prop strategies to guide your wagers this week.
Top Favorites to Win the U.S. Open
- Scottie Scheffler (+275)
The red-hot World No. 1 enters Oakmont as the betting favorite. He’s already captured two majors this year and is unrivaled statistically in ball-striking and tee-to-green control. Bettors and models alike are backing Scheffler to break through with a U.S. Open win. - Bryson DeChambeau (+700)
The 2020 U.S. Open champ and 2025 LIV Golf standout is in peak form. His ability to overpower long rough and shape shots under pressure make him a perfect fit for Oakmont. - Jon Rahm (+1100)
While his season has been uneven, Rahm thrives on tough tracks. The Spaniard’s short game and power keep him among the top three on most betting boards. - Rory McIlroy (+1200)
McIlroy is seeking his first major since 2014. Although his form has cooled since his early-season win at Quail Hollow, his history in U.S. Opens makes him hard to count out.
Best Value Bets & Each-Way Options
- Ludvig Åberg (+3000)
Åberg’s elite driving accuracy is ideal for Oakmont’s tight setup. He’s trending in the right direction after a runner-up at Augusta. - Collin Morikawa (+2500)
Morikawa’s precise iron play could unlock Oakmont’s tough greens. He has two majors under his belt and a proven track record on difficult layouts. - Justin Thomas (+3500)
A former PGA champ trying to regain form, Thomas has the creativity to navigate Oakmont’s brutal rough and sloped greens.
Sleepers to Watch
- Tommy Fleetwood (40/1)
Consistently in the mix at majors, Fleetwood’s gritty style and control make him a strong sleeper pick. - Sepp Straka (40/1)
Quietly one of the most accurate players on tour. A top-10 finish at The Masters and sharp recent form position him as a high-upside sleeper. - Ben Griffin (66/1)
He’s coming off a breakout stretch of top finishes and has become a popular sleeper in betting pools. - Harris English (100/1)
English has multiple U.S. Open top-5s and thrives in grind-it-out conditions. Many experts are highlighting him as a must-add long shot.
First-Round Leader Props (via NY Post)
- Justin Rose (65/1) – Steady veteran with major-winning experience
- Dustin Johnson (80/1) – Won the 2016 U.S. Open at Oakmont
- Phil Mickelson (110/1) – Loves drama on day one; worth a flyer
Expert Betting Tips & Matchup Picks
- Corey Conners over Jordan Spieth
Back Conners in head-to-heads. Spieth’s inconsistency contrasts with Conners’ solid form in majors. - Ben Griffin over Shane Lowry
Griffin’s momentum and superior driving accuracy give him the edge. - Winning Score Over/Under: 277.5
With firm conditions and Oakmont’s notorious setup, oddsmakers expect a score near par. Lean toward over for +EV.
Longshot Parlay & Prop
- 100,000-1 Parlay (CBS Sports inspired):
- Scottie Scheffler to win
- Morikawa Top 5
- Sepp Straka Top 10
- Mickelson to make the cut
A $10 bet could net $100K if this all hits. Risky? Yes. But on U.S. Open week, anything is possible.
U.S. Open Betting Recap Chart
| Player | Odds | Why It Works |
|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +275 | Best player in the world, perfect fit for Oakmont |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +700 | Power game, past champ, great form |
| Ludvig Åberg | +3000 | Fairway machine with nerves of steel |
| Harris English | +10000 | Underrated major performer |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +4000 | Consistent contender in majors |
Final Word Before Thursday’s First Tee Shot
The 2025 U.S. Open is shaping up to be a showdown of precision vs. power at one of the hardest courses in America.
Whether you’re backing favorites like Scheffler and DeChambeau or plan to load up on high-value sleepers like Fleetwood and Griffin, this week’s major offers elite betting opportunities at every level.
- First Round Tee Times for Thursday, June 12
- Follow the LIVE Leaderboard all weekend long here.
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