President Donald Trump recently declared that gasoline prices have fallen below $2 per gallon, reigniting debate over the state of U.S. energy costs. However, data shows that drivers across the country are still paying over $3 per gallon on average, raising questions about the accuracy of Trump’s claim.
Trump’s statement and the real numbers
On Friday, Trump posted on his Truth Social platform, “Gasoline just broke $1.98 a gallon, lowest in years.” He used the statement to pressure the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, arguing there was “no inflation.”
However, according to AAA, the national average gas price stood at $3.165 per gallon on Monday—about $1.18 higher than Trump’s figure. GasBuddy reported similar findings, with prices averaging $3.12 per gallon after a slight increase over the past week.
Prices have indeed dipped compared to a month ago—down around 12 cents—but remain well above the $2 mark.
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Where the $1.98 figure comes from
While most Americans are not seeing $1.98 at the pump, there is a partial explanation. RBOB gasoline futures, which track wholesale prices for unfinished gasoline, dipped to around $1.96 to $1.98 per gallon last week.
However, these futures prices do not include critical costs like taxes, transportation, pipeline fees, ethanol blending, and retailer markups. Analysts, including Patrick De Haan from GasBuddy, emphasized that RBOB futures have little relevance for everyday consumers.
“It would be irrelevant to the consumer to know what the price of RBOB is because they’re not paying the wholesale price,” De Haan said.
Is sub-$2 gas possible anywhere?
There are isolated reports of lower gas prices in certain areas. Some stations in Texas and Tennessee offer prices near $2.20 per gallon. Loyalty programs and special promotions occasionally allow consumers to pay below $2 after using points or discounts.
However, in a true apples-to-apples comparison without discounts, no widespread retail gas prices have been reported below $2 per gallon nationwide.
Market factors impacting gas prices
Despite Trump’s assertion, broader market trends are influencing gas prices:
- Crude oil prices have fallen recently due to recession fears and increased supply from OPEC+.
- Refinery maintenance is wrapping up, which could push average gas prices even lower in the coming weeks.
- Some analysts predict average prices could drop below $3 per gallon nationally by early summer.
A White House spokesperson claimed that Trump’s energy policies are “lowering prices for American families,” citing an increase in domestic production. Still, market dynamics—more than direct policy—appear to be the primary drivers behind current gas trends.
Bottom line
While President Trump referenced a real wholesale pricing figure, it does not reflect what drivers are paying at the pump. National gas prices remain around $3.16 per gallon, far higher than $1.98. Future declines are possible, but for now, most Americans are still paying significantly more than Trump’s recent claim suggests.
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