The 2026 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) is now projected to increase 2.3%, according to a new estimate from The Senior Citizens League (TSCL). But that figure may rise — or fall to zero — depending on how President Trump’s sweeping tariff policies play out.
More than 70 million Americans rely on Social Security and Supplemental Security Income benefits. Each year’s COLA helps recipients maintain purchasing power as inflation changes. But this year, a complex web of trade policy and economic uncertainty may shift the outcome.
What Is the 2026 COLA Right Now?
TSCL’s April forecast now predicts a 2.3% COLA — slightly below the 2.5% increase in 2025. Other experts, including analyst Mary Johnson, believe the adjustment may land closer to 2.2%. Either would mark the lowest COLA since 2021, when benefits rose just 1.3%.
How Trump’s Tariffs Could Impact Social Security
President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff plan introduced a baseline 10% tax on most imported goods and higher rates on countries with trade deficits. Although the administration paused the rollout for 90 days, economists say the tariffs could fuel inflation, pushing the COLA higher.
However, experts warn that input tariffs — taxes on materials used in U.S. manufacturing — could raise domestic production costs. That could impact everything from medical equipment to prescription drugs and food prices, hitting seniors hardest.
Could the COLA Go to 2.5% or Higher?
Possibly. If inflation rises as expected in the coming months, the COLA could increase to 2.5% or beyond by the time the Social Security Administration calculates the final number based on third-quarter CPI-W data (July–September 2025).
But some analysts fear the tariffs could have the opposite effect: triggering a recession and stalling inflation. If that happens, COLA could be flat — a scenario seen in 2010, 2011, and 2016 when no raise was issued.
What Experts Are Saying
Shannon Benton, Executive Director of TSCL, warned that tariffs could have “a profoundly negative impact on the daily lives of seniors,” especially with rising medical and food costs.
Financial educator Alex Beene added, “Seniors may not buy new iPhones, but they do need tech for healthcare — and many devices rely on imported parts now facing tariffs.”
Even with a higher COLA, seniors often feel it doesn’t match the inflation they experience, said Alex Moore, a statistician with TSCL. Many report that costs for essentials like rent and medication rise faster than COLA increases.
What Happens Next?
TSCL will continue updating its COLA forecast monthly. The next major update will include April’s inflation data, which may reflect the early impact of tariffs.
The final 2026 COLA will be announced by the Social Security Administration in October 2025.
Final Thoughts
While COLA estimates offer a glimpse into next year’s Social Security increase, a lot depends on inflation, economic growth, and policy shifts — especially tariffs. Whether retirees see a larger check or a cost-of-living crisis depends on how things unfold in the months ahead.
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