Travel between the United States and Canada is taking a major hit. Amid rising trade tensions and tighter border controls, Canadian travelers are avoiding flights to the U.S., leading to a sharp drop in airline bookings and seat capacity.
According to aviation analytics firm OAG, bookings from Canada to the U.S. are down more than 70% for every month through September compared to this time last year.
Travel Down, Tensions Up
The decline comes as the U.S.-Canada trade war continues, and many Canadians grow wary of potential detention at the U.S. border. That uncertainty appears to be affecting travel decisions.
“This sharp drop suggests travelers are holding off on making reservations,” OAG said in a recent analysis. “Ongoing uncertainty surrounding the broader trade dispute is likely a key factor.”
Airlines Cut Flights and Seats
The collapse in demand has already triggered changes in the air travel market. Airlines have slashed 320,000 seats on U.S.-Canada routes through October, according to updated OAG data.
The cuts are hitting peak summer months the hardest. In July and August, seat capacity has been reduced by 3.5%, with more adjustments expected if demand continues to fall.
Air Canada Responds
Air Canada, the country’s largest airline, acknowledged the market shift but pushed back on the scale of the reported decline.
“We have experienced a softening in the transborder market,” said Christophe Hennebelle, Air Canada’s vice president of corporate communications. “But the decline we’ve seen is significantly less than the numbers being cited.”
The airline also said it has made limited capacity adjustments, reallocating some seats to better-performing routes.
Travel Policy Changes Add Pressure
Adding to the turbulence, Canada recently issued a new travel advisory for citizens heading to the U.S. It reminds travelers that they must now register with the U.S. government if they plan to stay longer than 30 days.
This new requirement, combined with border security concerns, is likely influencing travel behavior.
What’s Next for US-Canada Travel?
With no resolution in sight for the trade dispute, and as Canadian travelers choose other destinations, airlines will likely continue cutting flights.
If current trends hold, 2025 could mark one of the sharpest declines in US-Canada travel in decades.
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