The proposed DOGE stimulus check—once expected to deliver $5,000 to American households—now looks far less generous and much more limited.
Investment executive James Fishback originally suggested the plan in February. His idea: take 20% of the money saved by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and return it to taxpayers. But new details show the payout may fall far short of $5,000—and most low-income households won’t receive anything at all.
Why $5,000 Stimulus Checks Are Unlikely
Fishback’s math was based on a projected $2 trillion in government savings. That would provide $400 billion in payments, divided across 79 million taxpaying households. The result? A $5,000 check.
However, DOGE’s current reported savings sit at just $115 billion. That would mean a check of only $142 per household if distributed today.
“This plan is not locked into the $5,000 figure,” Fishback told Newsweek. “If savings fall to $500 billion, the check would shrink to $1,250.”
Even Musk called the $2 trillion savings target a “best-case scenario.” He believes $1 trillion is more realistic, which would mean checks closer to $2,500.
Who Would Receive a DOGE Stimulus Check?
The plan targets households that pay more in federal income taxes than they receive in benefits. These are known as net taxpayers.
Fishback said checks would not go to those earning under $40,000 a year. Most in that group pay little or no federal income tax. “This goes exclusively to net-payers,” Fishback said. “They’re more likely to save a transfer payment like this.”
Undocumented immigrants also wouldn’t qualify. Despite paying an estimated $96.7 billion in taxes in 2022, they would receive nothing. “Illegal immigrants are never going to get a DOGE dividend,” Fishback said. “They do not pay into the system the way U.S. citizens do.”
Trump and Musk Support It, But Congress May Not
President Trump has endorsed the idea, as has Musk. But House Speaker Mike Johnson expressed concern about its impact on the national debt, which now stands at $36 trillion.
“Yes, giving everyone a check sounds great,” Johnson said at CPAC. “But we need to pay down the credit card.”
Elaine Kamarck of the Brookings Institution called the proposal “ridiculous.” She said the reported savings won’t be large enough to cause inflation—or to fund substantial checks.
DOGE claims it has slashed government waste through mass layoffs and canceled contracts. But a Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report showed the federal deficit grew 5% in February, raising questions about DOGE’s actual impact.
When Could Payments Arrive?
Fishback believes legislation is close. He said he has spoken with several senators and White House officials and described the feedback as “overwhelmingly positive.”
If Congress approves the plan, checks could go out in summer 2026. That’s the earliest possible date.
Can It Build Public Trust?
Supporters argue that the DOGE stimulus would rebuild taxpayer trust. They say the payout rewards fiscal responsibility and encourages people to report government waste.
Fishback believes the idea serves a dual purpose: “It incentivizes the taxpayer to trust DOGE and to take part. If they see fraud or waste, they’re encouraged to report it.”
Still, critics point to the long road ahead. Many lawmakers question whether DOGE’s savings are real or sustainable. And with millions excluded from the plan, the proposal could face political backlash.
For now, the DOGE stimulus remains a proposal—promising big checks but delivering only uncertainty.
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