Value betting is a pretty effective strategy and that’s why it’s so popular among professional gamblers. Today we’ll to figure out all its pros and cons.
What is a Value Betting system?
Value betting strategy is quite popular and its essence lies in the search for overvalued odds on a particular event. In other words, the punter needs to find in bookmakers’ lines much higher odds than the real probability of the outcome. This system will not bring you a quick win, as it is designed for a long-term perspective.
Some bettors prefer to search for such odds manually but much of punters use special value betting software (e.g. BetBurger) which helps greatly simplify the working process.
In order to understand the concept of this system, you first need to grasp odds formation by bookmakers. Many bookies have their own staff of analysts who calculate the probability of a particular outcome on a specific event and then set the odds. But surely, this staff puts probabilities only on top outcomes (1-X-2, TU/TO 2.5), and then all other results are automatically calculated and odds are set because of the bookmaker’s margin.
Also, overvalued odds may appear in the case when not all bookies are simultaneously reacted to the rapid change of events in a particular meeting.
In other words, when 10 bookmakers have already lowered odds on the outcome, and one bookie hasn’t managed to do it yet, you have to bet exactly on this bookie, thereby taking away the highest odds on the market.
Example of value bets
As you already know, in this strategy it’s important to bet on odds that are higher than the real probability of a particular outcome. The real probability is odds without margin, and it’s best to calculate as average value of several known bookmakers.
Let’s say we have the odds for the top outcomes (Team 1 or Team 2 win) of a particular event from 5 bookmakers:
B1: Team 1 – 1.52, Team 2 – 2.4.
B2: Team 1 – 1.49, Team 2 – 2.33.
B3: Team 1 – 1.46, Team 2 – 2.5.
B4: Team 1 – 1.43, Team 2 – 2.9.
B5: Team 1 – 1.39, Team 2 – 2.7.
Now let’s take B4 as an example and calculate the real odd without margin:
- 100/1.43 + 100/2.9 = 69.93 + 34.48 = 104.41% (everything above 100% is the bookmaker’s margin, and in our case it amounts to 4.41%).
- 1.43+4.41% = 1.493; 2.9+4.43% = 3.027 (these are real odds of the outcomes without margin included).
Further, in the same way, we determine the real probability of outcomes for other bookies and then calculate their average value. However it could be said that many value bettors are guided by odds one bookie only, whose analytical staff they trust most.
In this case, we also focus on the odds of one bookie (B4) in order not to bore you with unnecessary calculations. So, we have calculated the real odds without margin, which are equal to 1.493 and 3.027. Thus, the stake of Team 1 wins at B4 is suited as this odd is higher than real probability of the event outcome (1.52>1.493).
As you know, it takes lots of time to find such overvalued odds manually. In this case, betting odds comparison services may be useful to you. They analyze the lines of dozens of bookmakers and provide the best deals on the odds in a few clicks. In addition, some value betting and sports arbitrage software (e.g. BetBurger) already offer their customers fresh info on value bets and arbs, thereby performing your work to find overestimated odds.
Advantages and drawbacks
Like any other betting strategy, this betting system has its pros and cons. Among the benefits, such bettors are more difficult to identify than arbers. Consequently, their accounts in the bookies tend to live longer. Moreover, if you learn how to correctly analyze information and find overvalued odds, then this strategy can bring significant profit in the long run.
One more pro – even if your bet gets rejected, then you essentially have nothing to lose unlike arbitrage situation, where the bet cancellation on one shoulder can be costly for arber.
As for drawbacks, value betting system doesn’t guarantee 100% profit. In addition, this strategy can be profitable only in the long run, and if your series of failures is delayed, it will take a long time to be in the black.
Conclusion
As you can see, the reviewed strategy is quite effective, and can really bring you a tangible income that has been confirmed by many professional gamblers.
This content is brought to you by the FingerLakes1.com Team. Support our mission by visiting www.patreon.com/fl1 or learn how you send us your local content here.