Sunshine and a strengthening south wind will send temperatures close to 70 across much of the Finger Lakes and Central New York on Wednesday before a weak cold front brings scattered showers to northern areas Wednesday night and Thursday.
The rain will be light and uneven, with the best chance near the Thruway corridor and north toward Lake Ontario, according to the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton. Cooler, breezy weather follows Thursday, then the region turns dry and sunny Friday and Saturday before a more uncertain chance of widespread rain late Sunday into Monday.
Sunshine drives a quick Wednesday warmup
Wednesday begins chilly in the valleys and other sheltered locations, where temperatures fell into the 30s early in the morning. Patchy frost and brief river valley fog are possible in some of the coldest pockets, but neither weather service office has a frost advisory in effect for New York.
Those early cold spots will warm quickly after sunrise. Most of the Finger Lakes and Central New York will see mostly sunny skies through the morning, with more clouds developing later near Syracuse and along the Interstate 90 corridor as a weak disturbance approaches from the northwest.
Afternoon highs will reach the upper 60s in many communities. Rochester may reach about 70, while Geneva, Penn Yan, Ithaca and Syracuse are forecast to top out in the upper 60s. The change will put temperatures roughly 10 degrees above Tuesday's cool readings in many places.
South to southwest winds will also become more noticeable during the day. Sustained winds around 10 to 15 mph are expected across much of the region, with occasional gusts near 20 mph. Stronger gusts of 35 to 40 mph are possible farther west toward the Niagara Frontier, but the Finger Lakes and Central New York are expected to remain below those levels.
Most of Wednesday will stay dry. A few showers could begin developing late in the afternoon or evening near Rochester and areas closer to Lake Ontario, while the central and southern Finger Lakes are likely to hold onto dry weather through the daylight hours.
Scattered showers arrive Wednesday night
Shower chances increase Wednesday evening and overnight as the front crosses the region. The most consistent rain is expected from Rochester east along the Thruway toward Syracuse and across areas north of that corridor.
Coverage drops off farther south toward Ithaca and the Southern Tier, where some communities may receive no measurable rain. Even where showers are more numerous, amounts should remain modest. The Buffalo office expects totals generally below 0.15 inches across its area, while current point forecasts near Rochester and Auburn show localized amounts of one-tenth to one-quarter inch.
Clouds and a continuing southwest breeze will make Wednesday night much milder than the start of the day. Lows should remain in the upper 40s to low 50s across most of the region, limiting the threat of frost.
The front is not expected to bring thunderstorms or a severe weather threat. It will mainly mark a transition from Wednesday's warmer southerly flow to cooler west and northwest winds Thursday.
Thursday turns cooler and breezy
Scattered showers may linger Thursday morning and afternoon, especially near Syracuse, northern Cayuga County and areas farther north and east. A cool flow across Lake Ontario could keep lake-influenced showers and clouds going longest in north-central New York.
Much of the central and southern Finger Lakes should turn mostly sunny after the front passes. The chance of measurable rain is lower around Geneva, Penn Yan and Ithaca, and any shower that does develop should be brief.
Highs will generally reach the low to mid-60s, several degrees cooler than Wednesday but close to seasonal levels. Northwest winds will increase to 10 to 20 mph, with gusts around 25 mph and isolated gusts near 30 mph possible in parts of Central New York.
Skies clear Thursday night as high pressure starts building back into the region. Lows will fall into the low to mid-40s, with colder readings possible in sheltered inland locations.
Sunshine returns Friday and Saturday
Friday will be mainly sunny and dry across the Finger Lakes and Central New York. A few lingering lake-effect clouds or an isolated shower may remain north of Syracuse toward Oneida County early, but the broader region should see increasing sunshine through the day.
Afternoon temperatures will reach the low to mid-60s. A west wind may remain noticeable, particularly near Lake Ontario, before weakening Friday night. Clear to partly cloudy skies will allow temperatures to settle back into the low and mid-40s overnight.
Saturday brings the warmer half of the weekend as high pressure shifts east and a southerly breeze returns. Sunshine should dominate, with highs rising to the upper 60s and low 70s. Rochester, Geneva, Ithaca and Syracuse are all forecast to reach around 70 or slightly higher.
Saturday night remains dry, with increasing clouds possible late. Temperatures will be milder than Friday night, generally holding in the low to mid-50s as moisture begins moving north ahead of the next system.
Rain chances increase late Sunday into Monday
Sunday should begin dry across most of the region, with partial sunshine and highs near 70. Shower chances are expected to increase during the afternoon, then become more widespread Sunday night into Monday.
The moisture may come from the remnants of a tropical system now developing over the Gulf of Mexico. Forecast guidance has increasingly favored rain reaching the Finger Lakes and Central New York as the system moves toward the Ohio Valley, but its exact track and speed remain uncertain.
That uncertainty will determine when rain begins, how long it lasts and where the steadiest rain falls. Current forecasts place the better chance for widespread rain from late Sunday into early Monday, but meaningful changes in timing and coverage remain possible as the system develops later this week.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
FingerLakes1.com is the region’s leading all-digital news publication. The company was founded in 1998 and has been keeping residents informed for more than two decades. Have a lead? Send it to news@fingerlakes1.com.
