Gov. Kathy Hochul leads Republican Bruce Blakeman 58% to 39% among likely New York voters, a Quinnipiac University poll released this week found. Three percent did not choose a candidate. The survey also found that cost of living and the economy dominate voters' stated concerns less than six weeks before Election Day.
The poll surveyed 1,026 likely voters Sept. 17-20 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points, including a design effect. It is a snapshot of opinion, not a forecast or an election result. The 19-point gap is larger than the poll's stated margin of error, but voter preferences can change before ballots are cast.
Cost of living tops voters' concerns
Asked to pick the most important issue in deciding their vote for governor from a list of 10, 28% chose the cost of living, 21% chose the economy and 11% chose health care. No other issue reached double digits statewide. Immigration drew 9%, taxes 7%, and crime and affordable housing 5% each.
Cost of living was the leading issue for Democrats at 35% and independents at 26%. Among Republicans, 21% named cost of living, closely followed by immigration at 20%, the economy at 17%, taxes at 15% and crime at 11%.
Hochul led Blakeman 66% to 30% among likely voters who identified cost of living as their top issue. Among those who prioritized the economy, her lead was 64% to 34%, the poll found. Those issue groups are subsets of the overall sample and their results should not be read as separate statewide forecasts.
Voters' broader assessment of the state was mixed. Six percent said they were very satisfied with how things are going in New York, 39% somewhat satisfied, 19% somewhat dissatisfied and 35% very dissatisfied. On the state's economy, 2% rated it excellent, 32% good, 35% not so good and 27% poor.
Party divisions and candidate impressions
Hochul drew support from 89% of Democrats, while Blakeman drew support from 90% of Republicans. Independents split more narrowly, with 51% for Hochul and 45% for Blakeman. The poll found a wider gender gap: 63% of women supported Hochul compared with 52% of men.
Among respondents who had chosen a candidate, 38% said they were very enthusiastic about that choice. Blakeman supporters were more likely to say they were very enthusiastic, at 51%, than Hochul supporters, at 29%. Still, 79% of those with a choice said they were not likely at all to change their minds before the election.
Hochul was viewed favorably by 46% of likely voters and unfavorably by 43%. Blakeman's ratings were 30% favorable and 36% unfavorable, while 34% said they had not heard enough about him. That difference in familiarity is an important qualification when comparing the two candidates' ratings.
Likely voters narrowly split on whether Hochul cares about the needs of people like them, with 48% saying yes and 45% no. For Blakeman, 35% said yes and 43% no, while 21% did not offer an opinion. Hochul's job approval stood at 48%, with 44% disapproving.
On specific issues, 51% said Hochul would do a better job growing the state's economy, compared with 41% for Blakeman. The poll found a 50%-38% split in her favor on lowering the cost of living, 48%-43% on taxes and 50%-42% on immigration. These are perceptions of the candidates, not measurements of policy outcomes.
Senate and presidential ratings
The survey also measured views of New York's U.S. senators. Kirsten Gillibrand's job approval was 41%, while 33% disapproved and 26% did not offer an opinion. Chuck Schumer's approval was 36%, with 54% disapproving. Among Democrats, 56% approved of Schumer's performance and 33% disapproved.
President Donald Trump's job approval among New York likely voters stood at 29%, with 66% disapproving. His favorable rating was 30%, compared with 63% unfavorable. The poll also found 46% viewed Zohran Mamdani favorably and 36% unfavorably, while 41% viewed Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez favorably and 36% unfavorably.
The statewide survey combined interviews with likely voters reached through probability-based sampling and live interviewers on landlines and cellphones, according to Quinnipiac. The results describe the electorate it identified for this survey; actual turnout and the final campaign could alter the outcome.
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