Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont holds a 17-point lead over Republican challenger Ryan Fazio with less than two months before the election, according to a Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters.
The survey found 55% supported Lamont, a Democrat, while 38% backed Fazio. Five percent were undecided and 2% declined to answer.
Quinnipiac surveyed 1,288 likely Connecticut voters from Sept. 8 through Sept. 14. The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points, including the design effect, and used probability-based random-digit dialing with live interviewers calling cellphones and landlines.
Party loyalty and a wide gender gap
Lamont received support from 93% of Democrats, while 86% of Republicans backed Fazio. Independents favored Lamont 48% to 42%, with 8% undecided.
Women supported Lamont by a 64% to 30% margin. Men were closely divided, with 47% supporting Fazio and 44% supporting Lamont.
Most voters who had chosen a candidate appeared unlikely to change their minds. Seventy percent said they were not likely at all to switch, while 18% said they were not so likely, 10% said somewhat likely and 1% said very likely.
Fazio's supporters reported greater intensity: 39% said they were very enthusiastic about their choice, compared with 27% of Lamont supporters. Majorities in both groups said they were somewhat enthusiastic.
Lamont was better known statewide. Half of voters viewed him favorably and 36% unfavorably, while 11% had not heard enough to form an opinion.
Fazio's favorable rating was 28% and his unfavorable rating was 25%. Forty-five percent said they had not heard enough about him, including half of Democrats and 46% of independents.
Cost of living and economy lead voter concerns
The cost of living was the top issue for 27% of likely voters, followed by the economy at 23%, taxes at 11%, immigration at 10% and health care at 8%.
Lamont led 63% to 29% among voters who selected the cost of living as their most important issue and 58% to 33% among those who chose the economy. He led 83% to 15% among voters focused on health care.
Fazio led 72% to 22% among voters who named taxes as their top issue and 63% to 36% among those focused on immigration.
Economic dissatisfaction remained substantial despite Lamont's overall lead. Fifty-three percent described Connecticut's economy as not so good or poor, while 45% called it excellent or good.
Fifty-three percent said the state economy was staying about the same, 39% said it was getting worse and 6% said it was improving. Fifty-two percent said they were financially worse off than a year earlier, compared with 28% who said they were better off and 18% who volunteered that their situation was unchanged.
Asked who was more responsible for Connecticut's economy, 50% chose Lamont and 41% chose President Donald Trump. Among voters who rated the economy positively, the split was 48% Lamont to 45% Trump; among those who rated it negatively, 53% chose Lamont and 38% Trump.
Voters rate leadership and job performance
Sixty-three percent said Lamont had good leadership skills, compared with 31% who said the same about Fazio. Forty-three percent did not offer an opinion about Fazio's leadership, reflecting his lower name recognition.
Fifty-three percent said Lamont cared about people like them and 42% said he did not. For Fazio, 42% said he cared and 31% said he did not, while 27% offered no opinion.
Fifty-one percent described Lamont as honest and 37% disagreed. Thirty-six percent said Fazio was honest, 23% said he was not and 42% did not offer an opinion.
Lamont's job approval stood at 50%, while 42% disapproved. Democratic U.S. Sens. Chris Murphy and Richard Blumenthal had approval ratings of 51% and 50%, respectively.
Trump's job approval among Connecticut likely voters was 28%, with 67% disapproving. Republicans approved of the president 76% to 17%, while Democrats disapproved 94% to 3% and independents disapproved 70% to 24%.
Overall, 52% of likely voters said they were very or somewhat satisfied with the direction of Connecticut, compared with 47% who were somewhat or very dissatisfied.
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