A poll released by Republican Bruce Blakeman’s campaign shows Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul leading him by 3.9 percentage points in the New York governor’s race, with neither candidate reaching 50%.
The McLaughlin & Associates survey put Hochul at 49.6%, Blakeman at 45.7% and undecided voters at 4.7%. The firm surveyed 800 likely New York voters from Aug. 27 through Aug. 31, according to the campaign’s Sept. 8 release.
The campaign described the result as within the poll’s statistical margin of error. The release, however, did not provide a numerical margin of error, the survey mode, sampling method, weighting details or the wording and order of questions, limiting the information available to independently assess the result.
Familiarity and candidate ratings
Among the 80% of respondents the campaign said knew both candidates, Blakeman led Hochul 52% to 44%. The release did not explain the threshold used to determine whether a voter knew a candidate.
The poll also found 56% of respondents said it was time for someone new to serve as governor, while 38% said Hochul deserved reelection. Those findings were presented by the Blakeman campaign as evidence that the incumbent faces broad demand for change.
Hochul had a 42% favorable rating and a 55% unfavorable rating in the survey, a net rating of minus 13 percentage points. Blakeman’s rating was 40% favorable and 30% unfavorable, while the campaign said 30% of voters had not yet been introduced to his record.
Support within the parties
The campaign said Blakeman received support from 87% of Republican respondents in the poll, while Hochul received support from 78% of Democrats. The release also said 34% of current Hochul supporters and undecided respondents indicated they would be willing to vote for a Republican for governor.
Blakeman used the poll’s release to argue that voters were dissatisfied with taxes, housing costs, utility bills, crime and population trends under Hochul. He said his campaign would focus on affordability, public safety and keeping families in New York.
The release did not include a response from Hochul or her campaign. It also did not provide subgroup sample sizes, uncertainty ranges for subgroup findings or the full survey questionnaire, details that would help readers evaluate comparisons among Democrats, Republicans and voters familiar with both candidates.
The poll offers a snapshot of likely voters during a five-day period ending Aug. 31. The campaign presented it as evidence of a competitive race heading into the November election, but the missing methodological details leave the precision of that assessment unclear from the release alone.
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