FL1 FORECAST: Storm threat and heavy rain build across the Finger Lakes and Central New York today

Warm, very humid air is settling over the Finger Lakes and Central New York today, setting the region up for a more active round of showers and thunderstorms than what developed earlier this week.

Storms build later today

The day is not expected to start with widespread severe weather everywhere at once. Some communities may spend part of the morning with low clouds, patchy fog or a few showers, while others trend warmer and more unstable heading into midday. That uneven start is one reason forecasters are emphasizing uncertainty in the exact timing and placement of the strongest storms.

Even so, both forecast offices point to a more supportive environment for organized thunderstorms by later today than the region had on Tuesday. Buffalo forecasters expect the greatest storm coverage from this afternoon into early evening, while Binghamton forecasters say a stronger disturbance arriving late in the day should make it easier for storms to develop and intensify before gradually shifting south with time tonight.

For the Finger Lakes, that means the warmest and most humid part of the region could also be the part with the better severe-weather setup. Binghamton expects temperatures to range from only the upper 60s and lower 70s in the cooler Catskills and Poconos to the lower and middle 80s in the Finger Lakes, a difference that matters because the warmer side of the boundary should have more fuel available for stronger thunderstorm development.

Wind, hail and a lower tornado risk

The main severe-weather threat still appears to be damaging wind gusts. Both offices describe enough wind shear and instability for stronger storms to organize if they can take hold, and Buffalo specifically highlights the potential for damaging straight-line winds and hail with the most intense cells.

Hail also remains part of the forecast, especially in storms that can grow quickly during the late afternoon and evening. Binghamton notes that storm structure near the boundary could become complicated as activity moves north of the warm front or rides along it, which is one reason the office says isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out even though that risk is not the primary story.

That distinction is important in how the day is framed. Forecasters are not describing a guaranteed regionwide severe outbreak, and they continue to tie the highest-end risk to smaller-scale details that may not become clear until storms actually begin to organize. Confidence is stronger that at least part of the Finger Lakes and Central New York will see a busier thunderstorm period than in the exact corridor that ends up taking the hardest hit.

Heavy rain may overlap the storm threat

The rain side of the forecast may be just as important as the wind threat in some places. Binghamton says moisture levels will climb high enough to support locally heavy rainfall, with an increasing signal for narrow corridors that could pick up 2 to 3 inches and isolated spots potentially topping that if storms repeat over the same area.

That concern extends beyond the immediate severe-weather corridor. While the sharper wind threat may favor areas on the warmer side of the boundary, Binghamton says the setup for excessive rainfall could reach farther north and east as well, especially where thunderstorms train along the front or where repeated waves of rain move across the same communities late today through tonight.

Tonight stays unsettled before improvement begins

The most active stretch is expected to continue well after sunset. Buffalo expects organized showers and thunderstorms to remain in play Wednesday evening, though the exact timing is still uncertain, and Binghamton keeps widespread showers and thunderstorms in the forecast overnight as the wave and frontal zone continue working through the region.

That does not guarantee that every community stays stormy all night. It does mean the pattern remains active long enough that the region's weather story cannot be treated as only a brief late-afternoon window. The risk of heavy rain and embedded thunder is expected to carry into the overnight period before the broader setup gradually starts to edge south and east on Thursday.

Thursday turns more uneven

Thursday still looks unsettled, but not in quite the same way as today. Buffalo expects the cold front to sweep southeast through the region during the day, with additional showers and thunderstorms possible, especially across the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier. Binghamton also says stronger thunderstorms could linger into part of Thursday, though the better severe threat should sag south with time.

That leaves Thursday as more of a transition day. Some places may still see another round of storms or heavier showers, while others begin turning cooler as the front clears and humidity slowly eases. Highs should also back off a bit from today's warmer readings once the cooler air starts pressing in behind the boundary.

Cooler air settles in for late week

The cleaner break still appears more likely late Thursday night into Friday. Buffalo expects quieter weather overall as high pressure starts building in, although an isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out Thursday night. By Friday, highs should settle mainly in the 70s, and the air mass should feel noticeably less humid than it does today.

Binghamton carries that same broader trend into the Labor Day weekend, with cooler nights, highs mostly in the 70s and a mainly dry pattern favored from Friday into early next week. There could still be a few lake-influenced showers at times depending on how cool the air becomes aloft, but the larger signal is for a calmer stretch after the midweek storm and downpour risk moves out.

That shift should leave the region with a much different feel by the weekend than the one in place today, as the current humid and storm-ready pattern gives way to fresher air and a quieter start to the holiday stretch.