A calmer and brighter stretch is settling over the Finger Lakes and Central New York on Wednesday, with high pressure bringing a break from the recent unsettled pattern and setting up the region's quietest day of the workweek.
That quieter weather is expected to be short-lived, though. Patchy early fog will give way to mostly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures today, according to the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton, before warmer and more humid air returns late tonight and Thursday ahead of the next round of showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday brings the week's cleanest weather
The day starts with a few leftover signs of the cooler air that moved in behind Tuesday's showers. Parts of the Finger Lakes, the Western Southern Tier and other sheltered valleys may see patchy fog around daybreak, especially where recent rainfall and light winds allow moisture to collect near the ground.
That fog is expected to thin out through the morning as sunshine increases and the ridge of high pressure settles overhead. Once it does, much of the region should see a noticeably quieter day with light winds, dry conditions and a better supply of sun than the Finger Lakes and Central New York have seen over the last couple of days.
Temperatures should recover into the 70s to lower 80s this afternoon, with the warmest spots likely in lower elevations and the cooler readings holding in the higher terrain. Humidity also stays fairly manageable through the day, keeping Wednesday closer to a comfortable late-summer reset than a midsummer heat surge.
The regional setup looks broad enough that there should be fewer sharp contrasts from one community to the next than there were earlier this week. Rochester, Syracuse and many of the larger lakeside and valley locations should all get in on the drier stretch, even if some early fog hangs on a little longer in the usual sheltered spots.
Late tonight starts the next transition
The stable pattern begins to loosen up again tonight as the high shifts east and a warm front starts lifting toward western and central New York. Most of the evening should remain dry, but the forecast becomes less settled after midnight as the atmosphere gradually turns warmer and more humid from southwest to northeast.
That change does not necessarily mean every town sees rain before daybreak Thursday. Even so, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms may begin to develop late at night or toward early Thursday morning, particularly as the frontal zone edges closer and moisture starts increasing over the eastern Great Lakes.
Overnight temperatures will not fall as much as they did earlier in the week. Lows are expected to hold mainly in the mid-50s to mid-60s by Thursday morning, reflecting the return of milder air and a pattern that is shifting away from the crisp, cool feel that dominates Wednesday morning.
Thursday carries the strongest storm signal
Thursday is the day that carries the most meaningful weather change in the short-range forecast. A warm, more humid air mass is expected to be in place by afternoon as a cold front approaches from the west, and that combination should allow showers and thunderstorms to become more numerous from later in the day into Thursday night.
There may be a few showers around during the morning as the warm front moves through, but the more consequential window appears to be late afternoon into early evening. That timing matters because it would place the front and any stronger storms over the region during the warmest part of the day, when the atmosphere has had more time to destabilize.
Forecasters say a few storms could become severe Thursday afternoon and early evening if enough breaks of sun develop beforehand. The overall setup does not guarantee that outcome everywhere, and forecast confidence still depends on details such as cloud cover, the exact frontal timing and how much instability is able to build before storms organize.
The stronger signal for that severe-weather potential is centered more across Central New York and the Southern Tier than across the northwestern Finger Lakes, but the broader Finger Lakes region is still in line for scattered thunderstorms as the front moves through. Gusty winds would be the main concern in stronger storms, with hail also possible in a few cells.
Heavy downpours are also part of the Thursday forecast, especially where storms track repeatedly over the same area or where the warm front focuses rain before the main line arrives. Even so, the current signal points to a lower-end flood concern rather than a widespread flash-flood setup, since storms are expected to keep moving instead of stalling over the same communities for long periods.
Temperatures Thursday should rise back into the upper 70s and lower 80s in many areas before storms arrive, and a few warmer valley locations could climb a bit higher if clouds break long enough. That warmer, more humid feel will be a clear change from Wednesday's quieter air.
Friday still has some uncertainty
Showers and thunderstorms may linger into Thursday night and possibly part of Friday morning as the cold front pushes east of the region. That leaves Friday with a split personality in the forecast: still unsettled enough for some leftover showers or a thunderstorm, but gradually trending drier as the day goes on and high pressure begins to build back in.
The exact timing of that improvement remains one of the less certain parts of the forecast. If the front clears the region sooner, Friday could turn into a mainly cooler, quieter day by afternoon. If it slows down or if additional disturbances follow behind it, scattered showers could hold on longer, especially across Central New York and areas farther east.
Temperatures Friday should settle back into the 70s for most of the region as somewhat cooler air returns behind the front. The humidity should also begin easing, which will help reinforce the shift away from Thursday's more storm-prone setup even if the improvement is not immediate everywhere.
Weekend weather turns quieter again
The larger pattern looks more favorable heading into the weekend as high pressure strengthens behind the departing front. That should support a mainly dry stretch for Saturday and Sunday across the Finger Lakes and Central New York, with a more comfortable late-August feel returning after the late-week humidity.
Saturday currently looks like the cooler of the two weekend days, with highs generally in the mid to upper 70s. Sunday is expected to edge a little warmer, with many communities climbing back into the low 80s while dry weather largely holds.
The next chance for showers beyond that appears to wait until Monday, when another front may sag south out of Canada. For now, though, the cleaner signal in the forecast is the quiet midweek break today, the sharper storm risk Thursday, and then another turn toward drier weather by the weekend.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
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