Cool late-August air will keep scattered showers moving across the Finger Lakes and Central New York on Tuesday, with the most persistent activity favoring parts of Central New York and areas influenced by the lakes before a brief midweek break arrives.
The pattern keeps temperatures running well below the warmer stretch that typically defines late August, with highs mostly in the upper 60s to mid-70s today and only a modest rebound Wednesday. After that quieter pause, a warmer and more humid air mass is expected to build back in Thursday ahead of the next front, bringing the region's next broader chance for showers and thunderstorms into late Thursday and Friday.
Tuesday stays cool and uneven
The day begins with a familiar setup for a region that has spent the last few days under a stubborn upper-level low. Showers early Tuesday are expected to be most concentrated near and north of the Thruway corridor at first, then spread farther south and east through the afternoon as winds turn more northwesterly and another disturbance swings through the broader system.
That means the Finger Lakes and Central New York are not looking at a steady all-day rain everywhere, but few places will be completely insulated from passing showers. Some communities will see longer dry breaks than others, especially where lake bands weaken for a time, while others may get several rounds before the day is over. The most persistent activity should still favor the lake-influenced corridors and the eastern half of the region.
The cool air aloft is also enough to keep the atmosphere somewhat unstable despite the lack of summerlike warmth. A few isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon, and any heavier shower or storm could briefly produce small hail. Even so, the overall setup remains more scattered than organized, which should keep the stronger weather limited and localized rather than widespread.
Temperatures will reinforce the early-fall feel. Much of the Finger Lakes and Central New York should spend the afternoon in the upper 60s to mid-70s, with the cooler readings more likely where clouds and showers linger longest. A few valleys farther south and east may push a little higher, but the broader regional story is a day that feels noticeably cooler than normal for late August.
Showers ease back tonight
As the upper-level system finally starts to pull away, the shower pattern should gradually loosen up Tuesday evening. The decrease will not happen everywhere at the same pace, though. Some lake-enhanced showers may hold on later east and southeast of Lake Ontario, while inland areas farther west see longer dry stretches develop first.
By late evening and overnight, the trend should be toward fewer showers and a more broken cloud cover across the Finger Lakes and Central New York. Lows are expected to drop back into the upper 40s to mid-50s, keeping the cooler feel in place into early Wednesday. Where skies clear enough and winds relax, some patchy valley fog could form toward daybreak, especially in the more sheltered Southern Tier locations.
Wednesday brings the cleanest weather
High pressure should take control for a brief but more dependable quiet stretch Wednesday, offering the most stable weather of the week. After any early fog burns off, the day is expected to turn drier and brighter across the Finger Lakes and Central New York, with a better mix of sunshine and clouds than the region sees on Tuesday.
That midweek improvement is not likely to bring a major heat surge right away, but it should be enough to return temperatures closer to seasonal levels. Highs Wednesday are expected to reach the mid-70s to around 80 in many communities, with lower humidity and lighter winds helping the day feel more comfortable than the cool, unsettled start to the week.
The drier window also looks broad enough to cover most of the region rather than split sharply from one county to the next. That makes Wednesday the most reliable break in an otherwise changeable five-day pattern, even though it appears more like a pause than a lasting turn.
Late Thursday into Friday turns more active
The forecast begins changing again Thursday as the next cold front approaches from the west and moisture starts to deepen over the eastern Great Lakes. The first part of Thursday should be warmer and, in many places, still largely dry, but the chance for showers and thunderstorms is expected to expand later in the day and continue into Thursday night.
That shift matters because Thursday will have a very different feel from Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s in many places, with some of the warmer Finger Lakes communities reaching the low to mid-80s before the front arrives. Humidity should also rise, giving the late-week system more moisture to work with than the lake-driven showers expected earlier in the week.
There is still uncertainty over how far north the deepest moisture sets up and exactly when the heaviest rain arrives. One part of the late-week forecast that bears watching is the possibility that moisture lifting north ahead of the front could focus heavier downpours from the Southern Tier into parts of Central New York late Thursday into Thursday night. That signal is not locked in over every part of the Finger Lakes, but it is strong enough to keep localized drenching rain in the conversation.
Friday should remain unsettled as the boundary pushes through or lingers nearby before finally moving east. That keeps showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for much of the day, though the timing still looks too uncertain to pin down the wettest stretch for every community. If storms hold off until later in the day, they would have a little more warmth and moisture available to work with. Even so, the broader signal still points more toward scattered stronger storms and localized downpours than a widespread severe weather outbreak.
Weekend trend improves again
By Friday night into the start of the weekend, the larger pattern should begin shifting back toward drier weather as high pressure builds in behind the late-week front. That should allow showers to taper off and set up a quieter start to Saturday across the Finger Lakes and Central New York.
The weekend does not look as cool as the first half of the workweek. Instead, the region appears headed back toward more seasonable late-summer conditions, with the wetter Thursday-Friday stretch giving way to a drier and more usable pattern once the front moves out.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
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