Cooler late-August air is settling across the Finger Lakes and Central New York on Monday, with scattered showers expected to keep the region unsettled through Tuesday before a brief drier stretch arrives in the middle of the week.
Forecasters with the National Weather Service in Buffalo and Binghamton say the steadiest shower activity favoring parts of Central New York, the Twin Tiers and areas downwind of the lakes at times, while temperatures stay stuck mostly in the 60s to lower 70s through Tuesday. The same forecast points to a more dependable dry break Wednesday, followed by another round of showers and thunderstorms from late Thursday into Friday as the next front moves in.
Monday stays cool and unsettled
Showers moving through early Monday are not expected to be the only round of the day. Binghamton forecasters said another disturbance rotating through the broader upper-level trough will help trigger more scattered showers this afternoon, with the widest coverage stretching from the Twin Tiers north into Central New York as cooler air spreads across the region.
The pattern remains uneven, which means not every community will spend the day under steady rain. Some parts of the Finger Lakes will likely see breaks between showers, but the atmosphere stays cool and unstable enough for additional redevelopment into the afternoon and early evening. Binghamton also noted that a few of the heavier showers could produce small hail, though the setup does not point to a widespread severe weather event.
Temperatures will reflect the larger air-mass change. Highs are expected to top out mainly in the mid-60s to lower 70s, and Binghamton said parts of southwestern Steuben County may struggle to get much beyond the lower 60s. That is a sharp change from the warmer, more humid feel the region carried through much of the weekend.
Lake bands organize tonight
The forecast becomes more distinctly lake-driven tonight as winds turn more northwesterly and cooler air continues to move over the warmer waters of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Buffalo forecasters expect lake-effect and lake-enhanced showers to become better organized tonight into Monday night, with the most persistent bands tied to the typical downwind corridors rather than spread evenly across the entire region.
For the Finger Lakes and Central New York, that setup keeps the best chance for repeated showers closer to areas east and southeast of Lake Ontario and across parts of Central New York, while some western Finger Lakes communities may see longer dry breaks between passing showers. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the upper 40s to mid-50s by daybreak Tuesday, reinforcing the cooler feel across the region.
Tuesday still carries shower chances
Tuesday is expected to stay cooler than average, even as the broader system begins to weaken. Buffalo said lake-effect showers should continue into the day before gradually easing, while Binghamton expects another shortwave rotating around the departing trough to spread showers farther south and east again after daybreak. That should keep a scattered shower pattern in place from the Finger Lakes into Syracuse, Ithaca and the southern half of Central New York.
The result is another day that looks unsettled without turning into a total washout. Highs should again run mainly from the mid-60s to the low 70s, with the most persistent clouds and showers likely where lake influence lines up with the northwest flow. By Tuesday evening and night, both forecast offices expect drier air and building high pressure to begin shutting the pattern down.
Wednesday brings the cleanest break
The forecast turns quieter Tuesday night into Wednesday as high pressure briefly builds over the eastern Great Lakes. Buffalo expects dry weather region-wide during that stretch, with clearing skies, lighter winds and overnight lows falling back into the mid-40s to mid-50s. Binghamton’s forecast also supports a dry midweek pause before the next front arrives later in the week.
Wednesday should bring the most stable weather of the five-day stretch. Afternoon temperatures are expected to rebound into the mid-70s to lower 80s with lower humidity and more sunshine than the region sees on Monday or Tuesday. In the Southern Tier valleys, some patchy late-night or early-morning fog cannot be ruled out around the edges of the clearing, but the dominant story is the return of quieter weather for a day.
Late week turns more active again
That quieter stretch does not appear likely to last much beyond Wednesday night. Binghamton expects the next cold front to start approaching from the west on Thursday, with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing Thursday into Thursday night before the boundary moves through early Friday. Buffalo’s discussion also points to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms returning Thursday and Friday across the eastern Great Lakes.
There is still real uncertainty in how quickly that next round expands and how wet it becomes across the Finger Lakes and Central New York. Binghamton said an area of low pressure may form near the Southeast coast and lift moisture northward ahead of the front, which could increase the risk for localized downpours late Thursday into Thursday night. At the same time, the Weather Prediction Center’s more focused excessive-rain concern at this range is centered farther south and east, a sign that the heavier-rain axis is not locked in over the Finger Lakes.
Temperatures should also recover as the next system approaches. Binghamton expects highs to rise back into the mid-70s to near 80 on Wednesday through Friday, with the Lake Plain and parts of the Finger Lakes potentially reaching the low to mid-80s on Thursday ahead of the front. That warmer push, combined with increasing moisture, should give late-week showers and thunderstorms more to work with than the scattered lake-driven activity expected earlier in the week.
Weekend trend
By the start of next weekend, both forecast offices indicate high pressure should begin building back in behind the late-week front. That points to a drier start to the weekend across the Finger Lakes and Central New York, with the cooler, showery pattern of Monday and Tuesday giving way to more seasonable late-August conditions after Friday’s system moves out.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
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