The Finger Lakes and Central New York are heading into a wetter, more unsettled weekend after a mainly quiet start Saturday, with showers and scattered thunderstorms expanding later today and a broader round of rain settling in overnight.
Forecast discussions issued Friday evening by the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton show the steadiest rain and embedded thunder moving through Saturday night into Sunday morning, followed by cooler air and additional scattered showers into early next week. Most communities should stay dry through at least early afternoon Saturday, and neither office had watches, warnings or advisories posted for New York late Friday night.
Saturday starts quiet before rain returns
Early Saturday looks relatively calm across much of the region, although a few valleys in the Southern Tier and nearby river bottoms may begin the day with patchy fog before visibility improves after sunrise. High pressure that controlled Friday's weather is sliding east, and both forecast offices expect that to keep the first half of the day largely dry while clouds gradually increase from west to east.
That quieter start is not expected to last through the entire day. Buffalo forecasters say a warm front pushing toward western and central New York should be enough to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms from the Finger Lakes westward later Saturday, while Binghamton expects enough moisture to support showers developing Saturday night as the broader system approaches.
The timing difference between the two discussions points to a forecast that changes by location and by hour rather than all at once. The western Finger Lakes and areas south of Lake Ontario could see the first showers and thunderstorms develop during the late afternoon, while the Southern Tier appears more likely to see activity become more numerous toward evening. Farther east toward Syracuse and the eastern half of Central New York, much of the daylight period may still offer long dry stretches before the steadier rain arrives overnight.
Temperatures should stay close to late-August normals despite the building clouds. Binghamton keeps highs near 80 through the weekend, and Buffalo points to only modest instability ahead of the front, a sign that the atmosphere should feel humid enough for storms but not primed for a widespread high-end severe setup.
Showers fill in Saturday night and Sunday morning
The forecast turns more widespread after dark as the cold front tied to the Great Lakes system sweeps east. Buffalo expects showers and embedded thunderstorms to become widespread Saturday night through Sunday morning, while Binghamton places the main frontal passage from late Sunday morning into mid-afternoon across its part of the region.
That overlap supports the wettest period of the weekend falling from late Saturday night into at least part of Sunday, even if the exact ending time differs from west to east. Communities across the western Finger Lakes may begin drying sooner Sunday, while the Syracuse area, the eastern Finger Lakes and neighboring sections of Central New York could hold onto showers deeper into the day as the front finishes crossing the region.
Rainfall does not look especially extreme on a regional scale, but both offices leave room for pockets of heavier rain. Buffalo says atmospheric moisture values will climb enough for a few locally heavy downpours, and Binghamton says rainfall amounts look more supportive of localized ponding in urban areas and some rises on small streams than of a broader flooding problem.
Thunder is also part of the overnight and Sunday forecast, though the stronger wording in the discussions stays measured. Binghamton notes modest wind shear but says the frontal timing should limit instability, while Buffalo says the timing of the front should keep the severe threat to a minimum. The more likely outcome is a weekend round of showers with embedded thunderstorms, brief heavier bursts of rain and uneven totals from one community to the next.
Cooler air settles in behind the front
Once the front moves through, the region does not flip immediately to bright, dry weather. Buffalo expects a progressively cooler cyclonic flow to spread across western and central New York from Sunday through Monday, and Binghamton also points to northwest flow under a broad upper-level trough as the pattern that will keep the atmosphere unsettled into early next week.
That means Sunday afternoon and Monday may still feature scattered showers, with a few thunderstorms mixed in at times, even though the most organized overnight rain should be gone. Buffalo adds that wraparound moisture and small disturbances rotating around the larger upper low could make showers a bit more numerous at times, especially as cooler air deepens over the lower Great Lakes.
Lake influence may become part of the forecast as that cooler air arrives. Buffalo specifically says the pattern could support lake-enhanced or lake-effect rain showers east of Lake Erie and east to northeast of Lake Ontario, while Binghamton says west to northwest flow may produce lake-effect showers on both Monday and Tuesday. That suggests places closer to the lake belts and higher terrain will have a better chance of holding onto occasional showers after drier spots start to emerge elsewhere.
Temperatures are expected to ease back rather than crash. Binghamton keeps highs near 80 through the weekend before cooler conditions settle in early next week, and Buffalo says the incoming air mass should be noticeably cooler by Sunday night into Monday. The result should be a more September-like feel at times early in the week, but not a dramatic cold snap.
Tuesday offers the clearest improvement
The strongest signal for better weather arrives later Monday night into Tuesday. Buffalo says conditions should improve as the upper low lifts northeast across Quebec and high pressure starts to build in, while Binghamton expects temperatures to rebound again later in the week once the early-week trough loosens its grip.
Tuesday does not look perfectly identical across the whole region. Buffalo still allows for scattered showers east of Lake Ontario early in the period before those diminish, and Binghamton's lake-effect mention suggests that any lingering moisture may be slowest to leave the more lake-influenced parts of Central New York. Even so, the broader trend is toward less coverage, more dry time and a steadier stretch than the region will see from late Saturday through Monday.
That improvement should also come with a more comfortable feel than the weekend's warmer and muggier lead-up to the front. After the churn of showers, low clouds and embedded thunderstorms, Tuesday currently stands out as the first day in the five-day period when both forecast offices lean more clearly toward drier conditions than wetter ones.
Another late-week chance takes shape
Neither forecast office keeps the region dry indefinitely. Binghamton says ensemble guidance is already pointing to Thursday and Friday as the next window for showers and thunderstorms, and Buffalo also expects fair weather to be temporary as the current upper low finally exits and the larger pattern remains active enough to send another system toward the Northeast later in the week.
Confidence is lower by that point than it is with the weekend system now approaching from the Great Lakes. Still, the current forecast progression is fairly clear: a mainly dry first half of Saturday gives way to increasing showers and scattered storms later in the day, the most widespread rain arrives Saturday night into Sunday, cooler unsettled weather lingers into Monday, and a better chance for drier conditions returns by Tuesday before the next late-week opportunity for rain develops.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
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