Dense fog and low clouds are starting Friday across parts of the Finger Lakes and Central New York, but National Weather Service forecasters expect that to give way to a quieter, brighter stretch by late morning before a cooler, wetter pattern settles in for the weekend.
The broad message from forecast discussions issued overnight and Thursday evening by the weather service offices in Binghamton and Buffalo is that Friday should be the clean break in the forecast. After early fog lifts, high pressure is expected to deliver dry weather, more sunshine and seasonable temperatures before showers become more common from late Saturday into Monday.
Friday starts gray, then turns pleasant
The most immediate concern early Friday is visibility. Binghamton forecasters issued a Dense Fog Advisory until 10 a.m. for much of Central New York and the Southern Tier after widespread fog formed overnight, especially in valleys where visibility dropped to a half-mile or less in many spots. The same discussion noted the northern Finger Lakes and Syracuse area were initially left out because they saw less rain Thursday, though patchy dense fog could still expand in some places before daybreak.
Buffalo forecasters also pointed to patchy river-valley and lake-valley fog in the Finger Lakes and western Southern Tier during the predawn hours. Taken together, the two discussions suggest a slow start for some communities from Ithaca and Elmira eastward, while farther north and closer to the lake plains conditions should improve sooner.
Once the fog burns off, Friday is expected to become the steadiest day in the near-term forecast. High pressure pushing in from the north should bring plenty of sunshine or at least longer breaks of sun through the afternoon, with highs generally in the mid-70s to low 80s. Winds are expected to stay light, and humidity should remain manageable compared with what is expected later in the weekend.
Friday night stays mainly dry, but it will not be completely uneventful. With clearing skies and light winds, forecasters expect areas of fog to redevelop, especially in valleys and other spots that hold moisture after Thursday's rain and Friday morning's fog.
Saturday stays mostly quiet at first
The next meaningful change is expected Saturday, although the first half of the day still looks relatively quiet for much of the region. Binghamton's discussion says high pressure should continue to influence the area through Saturday morning, which should help limit rainfall early in the day. That means much of the Finger Lakes and Central New York should start with dry weather, some clouds and a gradual increase in humidity.
By Saturday afternoon, the forecast becomes less settled and a little less certain. Buffalo forecasters expect a warm front and deeper moisture to support showers and scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, while Binghamton says guidance is still working through the timing and placement of a mid-Atlantic low to the east and another low developing near the eastern Great Lakes.
That difference is less a contradiction than a confidence signal. The region is expected to trend more active as the day wears on, but the exact coverage of showers may not be uniform from Rochester east to Syracuse and south into the higher terrain. The best reading now is that Saturday is not shaping up as a washout from start to finish, though more communities should see rain by late day than during the morning.
Saturday night and Sunday turn wetter
Confidence improves once the forecast moves into Saturday night and Sunday. Both offices point to a better chance for widespread showers as a cold front crosses the region and low pressure lifts north of New York. Buffalo's discussion says showers should become more widespread Saturday night into Sunday morning, with embedded thunderstorms possible as the front moves through.
Binghamton's discussion follows a similar track, with rain showers becoming more widespread later Saturday night into Sunday as the Great Lakes low lifts northeast just to the north and west. That setup favors a broader area of wet weather than the more scattered pattern expected earlier Saturday, especially from the Finger Lakes east across Central New York.
Even in the wetter part of the weekend, the forecast does not currently point to a high-end flood or severe-weather setup across the region. Binghamton said confidence in widespread flash flooding is very low, and Buffalo described the storm signal as periodic showers and scattered thunderstorms rather than a more organized severe event. Still, repeated rounds of rain could make for a damp Sunday and occasional downpours where showers briefly strengthen.
Temperatures should also begin to ease back as the weekend system settles in. Binghamton expects near- to slightly below-average temperatures from the weekend into early next week, a change that should be noticeable after Friday's more comfortable late-summer feel.
Monday keeps the unsettled pattern going
The system does not appear ready to clear out quickly once Sunday ends. Buffalo forecasters expect a progressively cooler cyclonic flow to keep scattered to numerous instability-driven showers going through the rest of Sunday and into Monday, with some added lake enhancement possible.
Binghamton also expects additional showers Monday as a strong closed upper low moves over the area and cooler air aloft settles across the Great Lakes. The office's discussion says that should keep the better chance for lingering showers across Central New York, with some of the steadiest activity tending to favor areas north of the Southern Tier.
That means Monday may feel more like a day of on-and-off showers than a continuous soaking rain, but it is unlikely to be a clean return to dry weather. Clouds, cooler air and periodic showers should hold temperatures close to or a bit below what is typical for late August.
Early next week begins to improve
The improving trend looks gradual rather than immediate. Buffalo's forecast keeps periodic showers around into early next week, while Binghamton says a few lingering showers could still hang on Tuesday, especially downwind of Lake Ontario and near or north of the New York State Thruway, before drier weather expands back into the region by Wednesday.
For the Finger Lakes and Central New York as a whole, that leaves Friday as the best opportunity for a cleaner stretch of weather before the weekend turns more active. Saturday still appears to offer usable dry time, especially early, but forecast confidence drops later in the day and improves again only in the sense that rain becomes more likely Saturday night, Sunday and into Monday.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
FingerLakes1.com is the region’s leading all-digital news publication. The company was founded in 1998 and has been keeping residents informed for more than two decades. Have a lead? Send it to news@fingerlakes1.com.