A calmer stretch of August weather is settling over the Finger Lakes and Central New York today, with high pressure bringing a dry Saturday before a more unsettled pattern returns late tonight and expands on Sunday.
National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton say the region splitting the weekend in two: A quieter start with seasonable temperatures and areas of morning fog, then a wetter, more humid Sunday as a low-pressure system and its fronts move through with showers, downpours and at least some thunder potential.
The clearest signal in both forecasts is that Saturday should be the better weather day across most of the region. Skies are expected to range from clear to partly cloudy, winds should stay light, and afternoon temperatures are projected to top out mainly in the 70s to lower 80s. Western and lower-elevation parts of the Finger Lakes have the best shot at reaching the warmer end of that range, while areas farther east and closer to the higher terrain should stay a little cooler.
That quieter setup followed patchy early fog in the usual valleys and lower spots, including parts of the Finger Lakes and nearby Southern Tier. Buffalo forecasters said that fog should thin shortly after daybreak, leaving dry conditions in place through the rest of the day as high pressure remains in control across the eastern Great Lakes.
Saturday stays settled
For much of the Finger Lakes, Saturday is expected to feel relatively comfortable by mid-August standards. Buffalo forecasters are calling for highs from the 70s into the mid-80s, while Binghamton expects mid-70s to low 80s across Central New York and the southern part of the region. The difference is small enough that the broad message stays the same: a usable summer day with more sun than clouds and no widespread rain concerns.
The main exception comes late tonight, when the first signs of the next system may begin to edge into the western Southern Tier and nearby western Finger Lakes. The Buffalo discussion said isolated showers and thunderstorms could begin to develop toward the predawn hours of Sunday as a warm front approaches from the Ohio Valley and moisture starts to increase from the southwest.
That timing remains less certain east of the lakes. The Binghamton office described Sunday morning versus Sunday afternoon as one of the bigger forecast questions, with guidance still split on how quickly showers and any storms organize across Central New York. That uncertainty matters because a slower start would allow more daytime heating, which could influence how much thunder develops later in the day.
Sunday turns wetter
Sunday is shaping up as the weekend’s more active period across the Finger Lakes and Central New York, with both forecast offices expecting showers to become more widespread as the day goes on. Moisture will increase sharply ahead of the approaching system, and Binghamton forecasters said atmospheric moisture values could rise to around or above 2 inches by Sunday afternoon and evening.
That deeper moisture raises the risk for periods of heavier rain, especially in the southern half of the broader region. The Binghamton office said rainfall totals are still trending somewhat lower than earlier guidance suggested, but amounts up to around an inch remain possible in the northern half of its forecast area, with closer to an inch and a half still possible farther south where forcing appears stronger. For the southern Finger Lakes and nearby Southern Tier counties, that keeps Sunday as the part of the forecast most likely to produce steadier rain and localized downpours.
Thunder chances are also part of the Sunday forecast, but the outlook is not locked in. Buffalo forecasters said scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of both the warm front and the cold front from Sunday into Sunday night, with a few storms potentially becoming stronger Sunday afternoon or evening if enough daytime destabilization develops. At the same time, that discussion also noted abundant cloud cover could limit how much instability forms.
Binghamton’s discussion took a similar position from a more cautious angle, saying thunderstorm potential currently looks minimal but could increase if showers hold off long enough for some clearing and added instability during the afternoon. Put together, the two discussions point to a Sunday forecast with a solid rain signal, some thunder potential and a lower-confidence question about whether any stronger storms can materialize before the cold front moves through.
Sunday night into Monday
Showers should continue into Sunday night before the system gradually pushes east, but neither office expects the region to snap immediately back to completely dry weather on Monday. Buffalo forecasters said isolated showers may linger Sunday night into Monday, with a few additional spotty showers or even a thunderstorm possible Monday afternoon and evening as weak disturbances pass through cooler air behind the front.
That means Monday currently looks more like a step down from Sunday’s broader wet pattern than a full clearing event. Rain coverage should be lower, but clouds and leftover moisture may still be enough to keep parts of the Finger Lakes, Central New York and the higher terrain from fully drying out for the day.
Temperatures should also ease back a bit behind the front. Buffalo expects highs mainly in the 70s to lower 80s on Monday, with a somewhat cooler air mass settling over the eastern Great Lakes. That should leave Monday less humid than Sunday, even with the chance for a few leftover showers.
Forecasters are also still watching whether any lake-influenced showers try to develop southeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario late Sunday night into Monday, though Buffalo noted that setup now appears more marginal than it did a day earlier. Even so, the idea supports keeping low-end rain chances in the forecast a little longer across parts of the region.
Tuesday brings another break
By Monday night into Tuesday, the forecast turns quieter again as high pressure is expected to rebuild from the western Great Lakes. Both offices point to a drier stretch returning at that point, with Buffalo calling for dry weather Monday night through Tuesday and Binghamton expecting quiet weather to hold through most of Wednesday.
For the Finger Lakes and Central New York, that should mean another round of clearer skies, seasonable temperatures and at least some renewed valley fog potential by early Tuesday morning before the air mixes out after sunrise. Afternoon highs Tuesday are expected to land mainly in the 70s to lower 80s, keeping the region close to typical mid-August conditions without the heavier humidity expected on Sunday.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
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