FL1 FORECAST: Quiet Sunday gives way to a more active week across the Finger Lakes

The Finger Lakes and Central New York are heading into a quieter Sunday after scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through Saturday, but National Weather Service forecasters say that break will be short-lived as a more active stretch returns beginning Monday.

Sunday starts with fog, then turns quiet

The first weather issue Sunday is expected to be patchy fog that forms overnight and lingers into the early morning, especially in valleys and in spots that picked up rain Saturday. Buffalo forecasters say the best chance for fog extends into the Finger Lakes and Genesee Valley, while Binghamton also points to patchy fog before conditions improve after sunrise.

Once that early fog mixes out, both forecast offices expect the rest of Sunday to turn noticeably quieter. Weak high pressure building in from the west is expected to bring a dry day across the region, with lighter winds and a break from the muggy, storm-driven pattern that was in place Saturday.

That quieter setup should hold through Sunday evening as well. Neither forecast office is signaling a renewed round of daytime storms Sunday, making it the cleanest stretch of weather in the short-term forecast before the next disturbance approaches from the Great Lakes.

Showers and storms return Monday

The next meaningful change arrives later Monday, when showers and thunderstorms are expected to move back into New York from the west. Binghamton forecasters say much of the early part of Monday should remain mostly quiet before the next round develops later in the day, while Buffalo expects a frontal boundary and a moist air mass to support scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

That timing suggests the western Finger Lakes and nearby parts of western New York would be more likely to see storms first, with activity then spreading east toward Syracuse, the eastern Finger Lakes and Central New York through Monday evening and Monday night. The exact arrival time will depend on how a storm complex over the Midwest evolves before reaching the eastern Great Lakes.

Forecast confidence is higher in the broader setup than in the details of how storms organize. Binghamton says remnants of a Midwest convective system may track east and help sustain thunderstorms into New York, while Buffalo notes that at least moderate afternoon instability should be available as the air mass becomes increasingly humid.

Locally heavy rain is the primary concern carried by both forecast offices. Buffalo forecasters say the air mass south of the boundary will be moist enough to support downpours, with surface dew points rising into the upper 60s and 70s and enough moisture in place for heavier rain-producing storms.

Buffalo also says there will be some severe weather potential Monday, with the greater risk focused across the western Southern Tier. That does not point to a widespread severe outbreak across the Finger Lakes and Central New York, but it does suggest some storms could produce gusty winds in addition to heavy rain if they become more organized.

Midweek stays warm and changeable

After Monday night's frontal passage, the forecast becomes less certain from Tuesday into Wednesday, but neither office shows a long, durable dry stretch taking over. Binghamton describes those two days as carrying lower overall storm chances, though warm temperatures, high dew points and weak disturbances in the flow mean no single period can be ruled out completely.

Thursday brings the next stronger signal

If there is one day later in the forecast that stands out more clearly than the others, it is Thursday. Binghamton expects a higher chance for showers and thunderstorms with the arrival of a deeper upper-level trough and stronger forcing, a setup that usually provides a broader push for storm development than the weaker disturbances expected earlier in the week.

That aligns with Buffalo's larger message that the pattern remains active early in the week, with additional storm chances continuing as fronts and upper-level energy move through the eastern Great Lakes. By Thursday, the overlap of humidity, instability and stronger lift should make showers and thunderstorms more widespread than they appear Sunday or even parts of Tuesday and Wednesday.

Heavy rain remains the most consistent hazard signal. Buffalo highlighted locally heavy rainfall in its Saturday evening discussion, and that concern carries into any period when storms repeatedly move over the same place or slow down long enough to produce a quick burst of water.

The severe-weather picture is less certain at this distance, and the forecast does not support overstating it. Even so, Thursday looks like the next period when a larger share of the Finger Lakes and Central New York could be dealing with rain, thunder and short-lived travel disruptions instead of just isolated or scattered cells.

Late week may start trending cooler

Binghamton's forecast also hints at a possible shift beyond Thursday, with the weekend potentially turning cooler and drier if the upper trough moves east in time. That part of the outlook carries lower confidence several days out, but it does offer the first indication that the unsettled stretch may not remain locked in place indefinitely.

Until then, the region appears set for a fairly typical August pattern, with one notably quiet day Sunday followed by several opportunities for storms as heat and humidity rebuild. No watches, warnings or advisories were posted in either forecast discussion Saturday evening, but both offices point to enough moisture and instability for periodic storms to remain part of the story across the Finger Lakes and Central New York through at least Thursday.