Summer is making itself felt across the Finger Lakes and Central New York this week, with forecasters warning of dangerous heat, rounds of thunderstorms and the potential for severe weather before a cooler air mass arrives early next week.
The National Weather Service has issued heat advisories for portions of the Finger Lakes, Southern Tier and areas along Lake Ontario as temperatures and humidity combine to push heat index values into the mid-90s through Thursday and potentially again Friday.
While the heat will be the most noticeable weather story, it won’t be the only one.
Multiple weather systems are expected to move through the region over the next several days, bringing repeated chances for thunderstorms, some of which could become severe.
Heat and humidity peak through Friday
Thursday will likely be the most uncomfortable day of the stretch for many communities across the Finger Lakes and Central New York.
Forecasters expect temperatures to climb into the 80s and low 90s while dew points rise into the 70s, creating oppressive humidity levels.
In urban valleys and lower elevations, heat index values are expected to exceed 95 degrees for several hours during the afternoon.
The National Weather Service warns that the combination of heat and humidity increases the risk of heat-related illnesses, particularly for older adults, young children and anyone spending extended periods outdoors.
Conditions may remain similar on Friday, although confidence in exact temperatures is somewhat lower because an approaching cold front could arrive sooner and limit daytime heating in some areas.
Severe weather risk increases late Thursday and Friday
Thunderstorm chances will continue through Friday evening as a series of disturbances move through the region.
On Thursday afternoon and evening, forecasters expect increasing instability to fuel scattered thunderstorms across much of Central New York and the Finger Lakes.
The primary concern with any stronger storms will be damaging wind gusts, although localized heavy rainfall is also possible.
The greater severe weather threat may arrive Friday as a cold front approaches from the west.
Meteorologists say a very warm and moisture-rich atmosphere will be in place ahead of the front.
Strong wind fields and increasing instability could support severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and hail. The highest risk currently appears to be east of the Genesee Valley during the afternoon and evening hours, though the exact timing of the front will ultimately determine where the strongest storms develop.
Heavy rainfall will also be possible with any thunderstorms, as atmospheric moisture levels are running well above normal for mid-June.
Cooler air arrives for the weekend
The weather pattern improves considerably for much of Saturday.
Behind Friday’s cold front, humidity levels are expected to drop significantly as drier air moves into the region.
Temperatures will remain warm, generally reaching the 80s, but dew points are forecast to fall back into the 50s, making conditions noticeably more comfortable.
That break may be short-lived.
Another cold front is expected to approach on Sunday, bringing a renewed chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Forecasters say there is still uncertainty regarding the timing, but if the front arrives during the afternoon when daytime heating is greatest, additional severe weather could develop. Current projections show favorable wind shear conditions, though storm intensity will depend heavily on how much instability can build ahead of the front.
By early next week, significantly cooler air is expected to settle into the region.
The National Weather Service says Sunday’s front should usher in the coolest temperatures of the forecast period, bringing a return to more seasonable June weather after several days of heat, humidity and storm chances.
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