The 2026 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) may bring the smallest increase seniors have seen in several years. The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) estimates the next adjustment at 2.4%.
COLA forecast drops to 2.4%
A 2.4% increase would mark a major shift from recent years. In 2024, the COLA rose 3.2%, while 2023 saw a historic 8.7% bump. If the forecast holds, this would be the lowest COLA since 2021.
The Social Security Administration will set the final figure in October 2025, based on third-quarter inflation data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Why the COLA matters
Each year, the COLA helps benefits keep pace with inflation. For many older Americans, this adjustment is the only raise they receive. More than 71 million people collect Social Security, and at least 40% of retirees rely on it as their main source of income.
Rising prices for essentials like food, rent, and medical care make the COLA crucial for financial stability.
Inflation slowdown drives weaker outlook
This year, inflation has cooled significantly. That trend is pulling down the expected COLA for 2026.
In April 2025, the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) rose just 2.3% compared to the same month last year. That’s far below the 5.8% growth rate seen in early 2023.
Because the COLA is tied to CPI-W changes from July through September, continued low inflation could keep the 2026 adjustment modest.
Seniors face financial strain
Advocacy groups worry that a smaller COLA won’t match the rising cost of essentials. Healthcare, rent, and prescription prices continue to rise faster than overall inflation.
“Even with a COLA, the buying power of Social Security benefits has declined by 36% since 2000,” said Mary Johnson, a policy analyst at TSCL.
While inflation may slow, many seniors still struggle to make ends meet. A limited COLA could increase that burden.
What happens next
The Social Security Administration will announce the official 2026 COLA in mid-October. In the meantime, seniors should begin preparing for a smaller increase.
Here are a few tips:
- Review your household budget now
- Track inflation news over the summer
- Check for Medicare premium changes
- Talk to a financial advisor if possible
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