A new model shows that COVID reinfections are most likely to happen in the next 1-2 years

People who have been infected with COVID-19 may see themselves re-infected in one to two years time, according to a new model.

One study showed that immunity is short lasting for some people, and reinfection could happen as quickly as just a few months after the first infection.

Jeffrey Townsend, a bioinformatician at the Yale School of Public Health, created a model using antibody level data from a previous study. He charted the pattern for two years for an endemic, or as if the virus circulated like a cold.




Using data from three similar Coronaviruses, the researchers built a viral family tree to model how traits change over time. This helped to show how immunity waned over time.

Related: Do people have super immunity from being infected from COVID-19 then getting the vaccine?

Around four months after having the virus, chances of reinfection are 5%. After 17 months it’s 50%.

The immunity appears to last for COVID around half as long as immunity lasts for the common cold.


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