Cold air is firmly entrenched over our region, so it is not a matter of IF lake effect snow will be a story, but only WHERE will it hit? A weak area of low pressure moving across southern Canada will cause the winds to shift throughout the day, so the answer to that question depends on the time.
This morning, lake effect snow showers over the eastern Finger Lakes have been dissipating as northwest winds die out. Some limited lake effect near the Lake Ontario shore will remain possible this morning, but the band should redevelop to the northeast of the lake as winds start to come out of the southwest. While these winds will take any lake effect from Ontario well into the North-country, the snow from Erie will set up just south of Buffalo and into the northwestern Finger Lakes for this afternoon and evening.
As the evening goes on, winds will begin to turn more westerly, dragging the lake effect bands south. I suspect they will end up in a similar position to where they were yesterday. They will likely stay in these places for a few hours before they begin to move again after midnight as winds continue to turn more to the northwest. This should send the Lake Erie snow south of the area, while Ontario begins to have an impact again. In fact, heavy snow will be possible tomorrow morning during the commute for parts of Monroe, Wayne, northern Cayuga, Onondaga and Madison counties. A quick few inches will be possible before the band drops further south and dissipates, leaving just clouds by late Friday afternoon.
Don't look now, but a long-duration snow event is looking very possible from the pre-dawn hours Saturday lingering through Sunday morning. I will have more details on this tomorrow, but right now, it looks like a widespread 3-6+" will be possible.